The Republican National Committee (RNC) is sending fundraising mailers in California and other states that look like the official U.S. census, a move critics worry will confuse people and skew actual census results. 

The mailers are labeled “2020 Congressional District Census” and are sent in envelopes reading: “Do Not Destroy. Official Document.” The envelope contains a questionnaire on blue paper in a similar format to the actual census, and includes questions on political policies and stances.

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One question asks the recipient if they “support President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE’s strong stance in demanding that our nation builds a border wall,” while another asks “Do you support the Democrats’ plan to enact Medicare for All?”

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The questionnaire does include fine print identifying it as a Republican piece of mail, stating near the top that it is “commissioned by the Republican Party” and in smaller print noting it’s paid for by the RNC. It also includes a letter signed by RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDanielRonna Romney McDanielGOP moves main 2020 convention events, including Trump speech, to Jacksonville GOP votes to scale back Charlotte convention, move Trump acceptance speech The Hill’s Morning Report – DC preps for massive Saturday protest; Murkowski breaks with Trump MORE and appeals for donations to reelect Trump.

RNC officials have maintained that the mailers are clearly labeled as RNC documents, and the survey performs well. 

Democrats, however, still worry the mailer is misleading. Democratic National Committee spokesman Daniel Wessel called it “intentionally deceptive.”

Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) told the Los Angeles Times that her office has been contacted by constituents whose elderly parents were confused as to whether the document was official. She also said she was worried people will “toss their actual census envelope because they’ve already filled this one out.”

RNC mailers claiming to be census-related have also been sent in Montana and Oregon over the past few months, as well as other states. The RNC also used similar mailers back in 2010, which were deemed by the United States Postal Inspection Service’s general counsel to be legal and not a violation of the 1990 Deceptive Mailings Prevention Act.

The official 2020 census is expected to be mailed in March. Census survey documents are issued from the U.S. Department of Commerce and U.S. Census Bureau and do not ask for money.

Former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonWhite House accuses Biden of pushing ‘conspiracy theories’ with Trump election claim Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness Trayvon Martin’s mother Sybrina Fulton qualifies to run for county commissioner in Florida MORE said Tuesday that she “will support the nominee” in 2020 when asked about her 2016 rival, Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Milley apologizes for church photo-op Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness MORE (I-Vt.).

The former secretary of State was asked at the Berlinale film festival — where she was promoting the new documentary about her, “Hillary” — about whether she would support a democratic socialist for the nomination, a scenario the Democratic establishment is increasingly nervous about as Sanders emerges as a clear front-runner. 

“I’m going to wait and see who we nominate,” Clinton said, “I will support the nominee, and it won’t surprise you to hear me say that I think it’s imperative that we retire the incumbent.”

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Clinton and Sanders ran a hard-fought primary in 2016 prior to President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE’s election. In a clip from the docuseries obtained by The Hollywood Reporter last month, Clinton is quoted saying “nobody likes” Sanders, with whom she worked with in the Senate.

“Nobody likes him, nobody wants to work with him, he got nothing done. He was a career politician,” she said. “It’s all just baloney and I feel so bad that people got sucked into it.”

Clinton has said in the past that she would support whoever the nominee is, though it was before Sanders’s campaign had shown its strength. The Vermont senator came in first in the Nevada caucuses and New Hampshire primary — and a close second in Iowa. 

“I’ve said I’m going to support the nominee,” Clinton told Variety last month. “But I do think it’s important to look at somebody’s record and look at what they’ve gotten done and see whether you agree with that or not. I think that’s what every voter paying attention should do.”

When Variety asked about her critical comments on Sanders, she responded, “I think we did that interview about a year-and-a-half ago. I wasn’t thinking about the election by any means.”

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Democrats are making a play for older voters, the powerful voting bloc that largely backed President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE in 2016 and is key to winning the White House in November.

Older Americans have the highest voter turnout rates, making their support crucial for whoever wants to win the White House in 2020.

Democrats best Republicans in support from younger voters and people of color, but there are simply not enough of them actively voting to beat Trump without winning over some of the baby boomers, argues Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster.

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“There’s no question of turning out older voters. We know they’ll be there. It’s a question of moving them over to us,” Lake said.

Fifty-two percent of Americans aged 65 and older who voted in 2016 supported Trump, versus the 45 percent who backed former Secretary of State Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonWhite House accuses Biden of pushing ‘conspiracy theories’ with Trump election claim Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness Trayvon Martin’s mother Sybrina Fulton qualifies to run for county commissioner in Florida MORE.

Favorability polls tend to show women are less likely than men to support the president. Trump’s support is highest among baby boomers, who are between the ages of 55 and 73.

As such, Democrats should focus their efforts on older women, who may be persuaded to abandon Trump given their concern for some of his actions, Lake said.

“The way to make sure Donald Trump can’t win is to pull out older white women. If we can do that, he can’t put it together, he can’t add the numbers up,” she said. “These older women are very, very concerned about Donald Trump’s erratic leadership and very worried he could tweet us into a war.”

Voters older than 65 are expected to make up 32 percent of Republican voters in 2020, according to the Brookings Institute, compared to 23 percent of Democratic voters.

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Trump’s support among older voters has remained stable throughout his presidency and has propped up his favorability ratings.

“Republicans depend heavily on older voters in order to win elections. That’s particularly true at the presidential level,” said John Hudak, deputy director of the Center for Effective Public Management and a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institute.

There’s no evidence so far that older voters are moving to Democrats ahead of the presidential election. But if that is going to happen, it will be after the convention, when Democrats pick a nominee, Hudak said.

“I think that part of that reason is that the president isn’t really being held to account by Democrats on specific policy issues. Right now Democrats are in the primary fight,” he said.

Still, Democrats are trying to make a dent in Trump’s numbers by attacking the president’s positions on Medicare and Social Security.

Priorities USA, the largest Democratic super PAC, launched ads this month in key swing states arguing Trump’s proposed budget for the upcoming fiscal year cuts Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.

“Donald Trump promised to protect Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security but continues to try and cut them while giving massive tax breaks to billionaires and big corporations,” Patrick McHugh, executive director of Priorities USA, said in a statement earlier this month.

The Trump administration has pushed back on that characterization, arguing that the budget just proposes a reduction in the growth of spending by about $600 billion over the next 10 years. But spending on the program would still increase over that time period, just at a lower rate. That’s accomplished by cutting what the administration deems wasteful payments to providers, similar to proposals offered by former President Obama. The reductions are unlikely to affect benefits, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Meanwhile, changes to Social Security don’t impact the retirement portion of the program, but cut retroactive coverage for disability insurance.

The changes to those programs, though, are likely to spark alarm for seniors.

Nina Turner, the co-chairwoman of Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Milley apologizes for church photo-op Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness MORE’s (I-Vt.) presidential campaign, penned an op-ed Wednesday writing that “Social Security is at stake in this election.”

“To both defeat Trump in this election and strengthen Social Security, we must choose Bernie Sanders as our Democratic nominee, because he has an unwavering record fighting against Social Security cuts — and fighting for an expansion of the program,” Turner wrote.

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Trump has sent mixed signals about the issue. While he has frequently said he would never touch entitlements, when asked by a reporter last month if reform would ever be on his plate, he replied, “At some point, they will be.”

There is one issue that could work against Democrats as they look to get support from baby boomers: the party’s debate over “Medicare for All.”

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Sanders, the front-runner for the party’s nomination and lead sponsor of the Senate’s Medicare for All bill, is lagging in support among baby boomers.

“They’re more concerned about the pressure it will put on Medicare,” Lake said.

But, she added, “It’s easy to get these older voters by just saying a separate ‘Medicare for All system.’ Not just putting a whole bunch of people on Medicare.”

Trump has tried to bolster his support among older voters who can be socially conservative by passing policies restricting abortion and promoting religious freedom.

But ultimately, Hudak said, voters care more about policies that impact their personal finances.

“Most voters vote with their pocketbooks,” he said. “And I think if an older voter sees one party or the other as a threat to their personal well-being that’s a much stronger motivator.”

Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, your daily rundown on all the latest news in the 2020 presidential, Senate and House races. Did someone forward this to you? Click here to subscribe.

We’re Julia Manchester, Max Greenwood and Jonathan Easley. Here’s what we’re watching today on the campaign trail. 

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LEADING THE DAY:

Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Milley apologizes for church photo-op Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness MORE (I-Vt.) is poised to emerge from Super Tuesday with a lead in delegates, and the centrists who want to stop him have come to a stark realization: It’s time to band together or watch him run away with the nomination.

Former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Trump finalizing executive order calling on police to use ‘force with compassion’ The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook MORE’s massive victory in South Carolina was a tipping point for the moderate Democrats who are worried that Sanders will lose to President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE in the general election.

Biden’s victory on Saturday unlocked a flood of new donations and endorsements for his campaign.

Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy KlobucharHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Democrats demand Republican leaders examine election challenges after Georgia voting chaos Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk MORE (D-Minn.) ended her presidential campaign on Monday and is en route to Dallas to back Biden’s bid. Former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegScaled-back Pride Month poses challenges for fundraising, outreach Biden hopes to pick VP by Aug. 1 It’s as if a Trump operative infiltrated the Democratic primary process MORE, who dropped out on Sunday night, will also endorse Biden for president.

Among the current lawmakers who have announced their support for Biden over the past 24 hours: Sen. Tammy DuckworthLadda (Tammy) Tammy DuckworthWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Senate panel votes to require Pentagon to rename bases named after Confederates Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk MORE (D-Ill.), Reps. Veronica EscobarVeronica EscobarThe DACA recipients protecting all Americans The Hill’s 12:30 Report: Pence visits Orlando as all 50 states reopen The Hill’s Morning Report – Presented by Facebook – Mnuchin, Powell: Economy may need more boost; Trump defends malaria drug MORE (D-Texas), Bobby ScottRobert (Bobby) Cortez ScottAm I racist? The coronavirus crisis has cut the child care sector Lack of child care poses major hurdle as businesses reopen MORE (D-Va.), Jennifer WextonJennifer Lynn WextonDemocratic lawmaker calls for Peace Corps, Americorps volunteers to be eligible for unemployment benefits Black voters propel Biden to big wins in Virginia, NC, Alabama Biden notches major win in Virginia primary MORE (D-Va.), Don Beyer (D-Va.), Debbie Wasserman SchultzDeborah (Debbie) Wasserman SchultzVA initiates process to remove headstones with Nazi symbols Overnight Defense: Trump extends deployment of National Guard troops to aid with coronavirus response | Pentagon considers reducing quarantine to 10 days | Lawmakers push for removal of Nazi headstones from VA cemeteries VA secretary stops short of agreeing to remove Nazi headstones MORE (D-Fla.) and Greg StantonGregory (Greg) John StantonArizona lawmaker warns Pence state may end coronavirus testing due to shortage Sanders poised for big Super Tuesday The Hill’s Campaign Report: Centrists rush behind Biden to stop Sanders MORE (D-Ariz.). Party leaders coming out in support of Biden include former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, as well as former Sens. Harry ReidHarry Mason ReidHarry Reid says he’s cancer free White House gets jolt from strong jobs report Murkowski, Mattis criticism ratchets up pressure on GOP over Trump MORE (D-Nev.) and Barbara BoxerBarbara Levy BoxerPolls show big bounce to Biden ahead of Super Tuesday Sanders poised for big Super Tuesday Establishment Democrats rallying behind Biden MORE (D-Calif.).

Biden, who has struggled to raise money, took in an astonishing $10 million over the course of 24 hours following his South Carolina victory.

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The big question: Will the relatively late movement behind Biden be enough to blunt Sanders’s momentum heading into Super Tuesday?

Fourteen states will cast ballots tomorrow, including California, where Sanders is expected to win big, and Texas, where he’s led comfortably. Texas and California are the two biggest delegate prizes on the map.

Sanders is also expected to win Utah, Colorado, Maine and Vermont. He’s the favorite to win in Minnesota, now that Klobuchar is out, and he’s pushing to win in Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases OVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Joint Chiefs chairman says he regrets participating in Trump photo-op | GOP senators back Joint Chiefs chairman who voiced regret over Trump photo-op | Senate panel approves 0B defense policy bill Trump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names MORE’s home state of Massachusetts.

The polls in Virginia and North Carolina are close and could tip toward either Biden or Sanders.

Biden needs to win in the south, where voters in Arkansas, Tennessee and Alabama are headed to the polls.

The wild card on Tuesday is former New York City Mayor Michael BloombergMichael BloombergEngel scrambles to fend off primary challenge from left It’s as if a Trump operative infiltrated the Democratic primary process Liberals embrace super PACs they once shunned MORE, who has spent hundreds of millions of dollars and will be on the ballot for the first time. 

Bloomberg is clearly cutting into Biden’s support in the polls in Texas. But there are real questions about whether Bloomberg’s national ad campaign will translate into real votes when it matters most.

We’ll find out about that and a lot more when polls close tomorrow.

— Jonathan Easley

READ MORE: 

The Hill’s Max Greenwood: Klobuchar to drop out, endorse Biden.

The Hill’s Julia Manchester and Amie Parnes: Buttigieg to endorse Biden.

The Hill’s Jonathan Easley: Top liberal group endorses Sanders.

FROM CONGRESS AND THE STATES: 

Biden is ramping up his attacks on Sanders, warning that the progressive independent will cost Democrats seats in the House and Senate.

“There’s an awful lot of people who are running for office who don’t want to run with Bernie at the top of the ticket as a self-proclaimed socialist. Imagine here in Texas or in North Carolina or in Georgia, the idea, if I said to you, ‘This is an open test. You’re running for office. Do you want a very popular, self-proclaimed socialist or a popular mainstream Democrat running at the top of the ticket?’ My guess is in most states, they’d say no.” – Biden in an interview with CBS News.

Massachusetts Rep. Joe KennedyJoseph (Joe) Patrick KennedyMassachusetts Rep. Joe Kennedy says Patriots ‘should sign’ Kaepernick Markey touts past praise from Kennedy: ‘He does an incredible job’ Progressive Caucus co-chair endorses Kennedy in Massachusetts Senate primary MORE (D) holds a six-point lead over longtime incumbent Sen. Ed MarkeyEdward (Ed) John MarkeyEngel scrambles to fend off primary challenge from left Markey touts past praise from Kennedy: ‘He does an incredible job’ Progressive Caucus co-chair endorses Kennedy in Massachusetts Senate primary MORE (D) in the Bay State’s Democratic Senate primary, according to a Suffolk University/WBZ/Boston Globe survey released on Sunday.

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The House Democrats’ campaign arm is targeting seven House Republicans in ads over the Trump administration’s response to coronavirus and the affordability of a potential vaccine, The Hill’s Rebecca Klar reports.

PERSPECTIVES:

Antjuan Seawright: February gladness brings March madness

Glenn Greenwald: Democrats should beware a brokered convention

The Nation: Bernie Sanders for president

Isaac Chotiner: How socialist is Bernie Sanders?

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Perry Bacon, Jr.: Why Buttigieg dropped out

POLL WATCH:

MORNING CONSULT

Sanders: 29 percent 

Biden: 26 percent

Bloomberg: 17 percent

Warren: 11 percent

NORTH CAROLINA (High Point):

Sanders: 31 percent

Bloomberg: 18 percent

Biden: 14 percent

Warren: 11 percent

MARK YOUR CALENDARS:

Super Tuesday is tomorrow.

March 10:

-Idaho primaries

-Michigan primaries

-Mississippi primaries

-Missouri primaries

-North Dakota Democratic caucuses

-Washington State primaries

March 15:

-Eleventh Democratic presidential primary debate

March 17:

-Arizona Democratic primary

-Florida primaries

-Illinois primaries

-Ohio primaries

March 24:

-Georgia primaries

March 29:

Puerto Rico Democratic primary

ONE FUN THING:

Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) and other Virginia politicians were late to a press conference for former Vice President Joe Biden on Monday after the elevator they were riding in got stuck. 

About 30 minutes after the 8 a.m. press conference was expected to begin, McAuliffe tweeted out an update to explain his absence. 

“Hey @JoeBiden ! If you are wondering about why we are not at our 8am press conference for you – we are stuck in an elevator in downtown RICHMOND. 30 minutes and counting!” McAuliffe tweeted along with a group photo that included Khizr Khan, the Gold Star father who spoke at the 2016 Democratic National Convention, and Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney.

Hey @JoeBiden! If you are wondering about why we are not at our 8am press conference for you – we are stuck in an elevator in downtown RICHMOND. 30 minutes and counting! #TeamJoe pic.twitter.com/SVpTIUoYfC

— Terry McAuliffe (@TerryMcAuliffe) March 2, 2020

Minutes after the tweet, the Richmond Fire Department came to the rescue. 

UPDATE: Saved! THANK YOU RICHMOND Fire Department @iaff1286 always has #TeamJoe’s back! pic.twitter.com/aB0GHCzf1Q

— Terry McAuliffe (@TerryMcAuliffe) March 2, 2020

Democrats are racing to broaden their path to the Senate majority in November, while Republicans are spending heavily in an effort to hold their control over the chamber.

With 200 days to go until Election Day, the Democrats’ path to a Senate majority currently hinges on four states: Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina, where Republican incumbents are fighting off challenges from well-funded Democratic opponents.

Democrats need to flip three or four seats, depending on which party wins the White House in November, to take control of the Senate. But one of their incumbents up for reelection this year, Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.), is in serious political jeopardy, meaning that Democrats will likely have to take at least four Republican-held seats — and hold back GOP challenges in nearly a dozen other states — to win a majority.

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Also weighing over the battle for control of the Senate are the presidential race and the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, which has upended the election cycle and now looms as perhaps the biggest variable in 2020.

“A presidential campaign always has the longest and most powerful coattails,” former Rep. Steve IsraelSteven (Steve) J. IsraelThe Hill’s Campaign Report: Bad polling data is piling up for Trump Biden faces new hurdle: Winning as front-runner The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden on the cusp of formally grasping the Democratic nomination MORE (D-N.Y.) said. “If President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE is perceived to be doing well, it will retain the Senate Republican majority. If in October he’s underwater, then the Democrats could take the Senate.”

Democrats’ softest target may be in Colorado, where Sen. Cory GardnerCory Scott GardnerSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote OVERNIGHT ENERGY: Interior faces legal scrutiny for keeping controversial acting leaders in office | White House faces suit on order lifting endangered species protections | Lawmakers seek investigation of Park Police after clearing of protesters The Hill’s Campaign Report: Republicans go on attack over calls to ‘defund the police’ MORE (R) is facing changing political headwinds and a challenge from John HickenlooperJohn HickenlooperGun control group rolls out first round of Senate endorsements The Hill’s Campaign Report: Republicans go on attack over calls to ‘defund the police’ Hickenlooper ethics questions open him up to attack MORE, the state’s popular former Democratic governor and the prohibitive front-runner in a crowded primary field.

The party is also confident of defeating Sen. Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallyGOP senators introduce resolution opposing calls to defund the police No evidence of unauthorized data transfers by top Chinese drone manufacturer: study Senate Democratic campaign arm launches online hub ahead of November MORE (R) in Arizona. McSally already lost a bid against Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) in 2018 and took office only after Republican Gov. Doug Ducey appointed her to fill the seat vacated by the late Sen. John McCainJohn Sidney McCainThe Hill’s Campaign Report: Bad polling data is piling up for Trump Cindy McCain ‘disappointed’ McGrath used image of John McCain in ad attacking McConnell Report that Bush won’t support Trump reelection ‘completely made up,’ spokesman says MORE (R-Ariz.).

And in Maine, Democrats have it out for Sen. Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsRepublicans prepare to punt on next COVID-19 relief bill Trump tweets spark fresh headache for Republicans Trump’s tweet on protester sparks GOP backlash  MORE (R), a four-term senator whose vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett KavanaughBrett Michael KavanaughGOP senators urge Trump to back off Murkowski threat Judd Gregg: A government in free fall The 7 most anticipated Supreme Court decisions MORE in 2017 amid sexual misconduct allegations touched off a flurry of anger from the left. She’s widely expected to face Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon, the Democratic front-runner, in November.

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Democrats are also looking to oust Sen. Thom TillisThomas (Thom) Roland TillisKoch-backed group launches ad campaign to support four vulnerable GOP senators The Hill’s Campaign Report: It’s primary night in Georgia Tillis unveils new 0,000 ad in North Carolina Senate race MORE (R) in North Carolina. He’s set to face off against national Democrats’ candidate of choice, Cal Cunningham, in November, and recent polls suggest a tight race.

A survey from the Democrat-leaning firm Public Policy Polling released this week showed Cunningham leading Tillis by a 7-point margin, while a poll from the conservative Civitas Institute out last week put Tillis ahead by 4 points.

Outside groups on both sides of the aisle have poured money into all four states in recent months.

The Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote GOP senator to try to reverse requirement that Pentagon remove Confederate names from bases No, ‘blue states’ do not bail out ‘red states’ MORE (R-Ky.), booked a combined $43.7 million in fall ad reservations across the four battleground states late last month, along with another $32.6 million in Iowa and Kentucky.

And just this week, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, invested some $33 million in advertising across seven states: Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Montana and North Carolina.

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Meanwhile, Senate Majority PAC, the super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Charles SchumerChuck SchumerOvernight Health Care: US showing signs of retreat in battle against COVID-19 | Regeneron begins clinical trials of potential coronavirus antibody treatment | CMS warns nursing homes against seizing residents’ stimulus checks Schumer requests briefing with White House coronavirus task force as cases rise Schumer on Trump’s tweet about 75-year-old protester: He ‘should go back to hiding in the bunker’ MORE (D-N.Y.), booked more than $56 million in fall ad reservations across the four key states, plus an additional $13.1 million in fall ad reservations in Iowa.

For now, Democrats appear to have the edge in fundraising. Federal Election Commission filings covering the first three months of 2020 showed Democrats in the four most contested states — Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina — outraising their Republican opponents by wide margins.

In Arizona, McSally’s likely opponent, retired astronaut Mark Kelly, raked in more than $11 million in the first quarter — roughly $4.6 million more than McSally.

In Colorado and North Carolina, Hickenlooper and Cunningham outraised their Republican rivals by about $1.6 million each. And in Maine, Gideon raised nearly three times more than Collins, bringing in about $7.1 million to Collins’s $2.4 million, federal filings show.

But with Jones looking particularly vulnerable in deep-red Alabama and the fate of the White House appearing uncertain, Democrats have little room for error if they hope to net the three or four seats they need to recapture a majority in the Senate.

A failure to flip even one of the four core seats — in Arizona, Colorado, Maine or North Carolina — and a potential loss by Jones could effectively kill the party’s chances of regaining control of the chamber in 2021.

Consequently, Democrats are hoping to bring a handful of other states into play, including Iowa, where Democrats say Sen. Joni ErnstJoni Kay ErnstGeorge Conway group hits Ernst in new ad GOP senators introduce resolution opposing calls to defund the police The Hill’s Campaign Report: Republicans go on attack over calls to ‘defund the police’ MORE (R) is increasingly vulnerable.

A Des Moines Register–Mediacom Iowa poll last month showed Ernst’s approval rating at 47 percent, down 10 points from a year ago. And while Ernst has outraised her top Democratic challenger, Theresa Greenfield, over the past two quarters, Greenfield has kept the fundraising gap relatively tight. In the first quarter, for instance, she raised about $500,000 less than Ernst.

Democrats believe they can also bring a handful of races in more Republican-leaning states into play, including Montana, where Democratic Gov. Steve BullockSteve BullockKoch-backed group launches ad campaign to support four vulnerable GOP senators Overnight Energy: US Park Police say ‘tear gas’ statements were ‘mistake’ | Trump to reopen area off New England coast for fishing | Vulnerable Republicans embrace green issues Vulnerable Republicans embrace green issues in battle to save seats MORE is taking on Sen. Steve DainesSteven (Steve) David DainesSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Koch-backed group launches ad campaign to support four vulnerable GOP senators OVERNIGHT ENERGY: Interior faces legal scrutiny for keeping controversial acting leaders in office | White House faces suit on order lifting endangered species protections | Lawmakers seek investigation of Park Police after clearing of protesters MORE (R); Texas, where MJ Hegar and state Sen. Royce West are locked in a runoff for the Democratic nomination to challenge Sen. John CornynJohn CornynSenate headed for late night vote amid standoff over lands bill Koch-backed group launches ad campaign to support four vulnerable GOP senators Tim Scott to introduce GOP police reform bill next week MORE (R); and Kentucky, where Democrat Amy McGrath raised nearly $13 million in the first quarter of 2020 for her bid against McConnell.

Democrats also see an opportunity in Georgia, where Sen. Kelly LoefflerKelly LoefflerKoch-backed group launches ad campaign to support four vulnerable GOP senators Jon Ossoff to challenge David Perdue after winning Georgia Democratic primary Candidates headed to runoffs in Georgia House race to replace Doug Collins MORE (R), who was appointed late last year to fill the seat of retired Sen. Johnny IsaksonJohnny IsaksonJon Ossoff to challenge David Perdue after winning Georgia Democratic primary Candidates headed to runoffs in Georgia House race to replace Doug Collins Justice Department closing stock investigations into Loeffler, Inhofe, Feinstein MORE (R), is facing a challenge from Democrat Raphael Warnock as well as from Rep. Doug CollinsDouglas (Doug) Allen CollinsKoch-backed group launches ad campaign to support four vulnerable GOP senators Jon Ossoff to challenge David Perdue after winning Georgia Democratic primary The Hill’s Campaign Report: Bad polling data is piling up for Trump MORE (R-Ga.), a steadfast Trump ally who’s running to the right of Loeffler.

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Those races are likely to prove significantly more challenging for Democrats than the four core races in Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina, and party operatives are aware that they’ll have to choose their battles carefully as they look to regain the Senate majority.

“This isn’t a numbers game. This isn’t the House map,” one Democratic operative familiar with Senate campaigns said. “You’re talking about a very targeted set of races that we need to get back to the majority.”

With the exception of Alabama, Republicans have few pickup opportunities in 2020. The party is defending incumbents in 23 seats, compared with only a dozen for Democrats.

But they see an emerging opportunity in Michigan, where Republican John James, who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2018, is vying to take on Sen. Gary PetersGary Charles PetersWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Hillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Democrats demand Republican leaders examine election challenges after Georgia voting chaos MORE (D), a first-term senator whose relatively low name ID has bolstered the GOP’s hopes of ousting him.

James outraised Peters in the first quarter of the year, raking in $4.8 million to Peters’s roughly $4.1 million.

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But edging out Peters will likely prove difficult for the GOP. Polling in the race has been scarce in recent weeks, but virtually every public survey of the race shows Peters leading James.

At the same time, Democrats are pouring money into Michigan to bolster Peters. Between Dec. 1 and April 10, Democrats spent nearly $5.1 million on advertising in the state, according to data from the ad tracking firm Advertising Analytics. Republicans, meanwhile, spent just under $2 million.

Peters may also get a boost from the presidential race. Democrats are eager to win Michigan in November after Trump narrowly carried the state in 2016. Recent polls, however, show former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Trump finalizing executive order calling on police to use ‘force with compassion’ The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook MORE, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, with a slim lead in the state.

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