Brussels’ battle to tame Visegrad rebels

EU officials woo Prague and Bratislava — but play hardball with Warsaw and Budapest.

BRATISLAVA ­— Brussels has a new strategy for dealing with Central Europe’s obstinate capitals: divide et impera.

As the EU’s battle with Hungary and Poland over what Brussels sees as a breakdown in democratic norms in those countries intensifies, the Commission is working behind the scenes to drive a wedge between them and the rest of the Visegrad Group, a Central European alliance that also includes Slovakia and the Czech Republic.

Diplomats and officials in the region say the Commission is using the power of its purse in ongoing budget talks to sow division among the four. If successful, the tactic could leave Hungary and Poland, both considered pariah states by much of Western Europe’s political establishment, even more isolated.

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With countries in Central Europe facing the possibility of substantial cuts to their allotment of development funding in the EU’s next seven-year budget, the Commission has made it clear to leaders in both Prague and Bratislava that it’s not in their interest to lock arms with Poland’s de facto leader Jarosław Kaczyński or Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

While the unity of the Visegrad countries has run hot and cold ever since the group was founded in 1991, individual members’ interests have become increasingly divergent since they joined the EU in 2004, making it easier for Brussels to play them off against each another.

Those divisions were on display in recent days at an annual gathering of regional leaders organized by Slovakia’s Globsec think tank in Bratislava.

Polish Foreign Minister Jacek Czaputowicz warned that vesting too much power in the Commission and embracing proposals for greater EU integration, such as those put forth by French President Emmanuel Macron, would “impose the will of elites on people.”

But others from the region were cautious about advocating the alternative — an “intergovernmental” approach to EU decision-making that they fear would leave large countries such as Germany and France with even more influence.

“It would be very bad if we saw a process leading Europe to turn from a community-run institution into intergovernmental,” Ivan Korčok, Slovakia’s state secretary for EU affairs, said, adding that such a course would expose the “difference of weight” between large and small countries.

“Intergovernmental has become so catchy, but it would be a problem for small countries because seeking confrontation with the Commission is different to seeking confrontation with the big guys.”

Migration connection

The main issue that continues to bind the Visegrad countries is migration, with all opposing quotas and other proposals that would compel them to accept significant numbers of refugees. Yet here, they are also supported by a host of other EU countries, including several from the south, confounding the Commission’s effort to forge a compromise to reform the current system.

A more pressing concern for the Commission is Visegrad members’ position on its “rule of law” proposal, which would allow Brussels to suspend budget funds to countries deemed not to be upholding EU democratic standards.

The proposal follows the Commission’s decision in December to try to sanction Poland over a controversial judiciary reform that critics say sacrifices the legal system’s independence and undermines the constitution.

Under the so-called Article 7 process triggered by the Commission, Poland could lose its EU voting rights. Such an outcome is unlikely, however, because it would require a unanimous decision by all other EU members — and Hungary has signaled it would exercise its veto.

Orbán secured a third consecutive term with a landslide election win last month on the back of opposition to EU intervention and a public “Stop Brussels” campaign.

Still, some in Brussels believe Orbán’s campaign for “illiberal democracy” is little more than bluster and suggest he might trade his veto for better terms from the EU on the budget. Hungary relies on EU funds for more than 55 percent of public investment — money Orbán can’t do without.

Officials from Slovakia and the Czech Republic, meanwhile, have made it clear they aren’t willing to sacrifice their own interest to defend Poland and Hungary over the rule of law question. While the two also rely on EU largesse — EU funding accounts for 55 percent of public investment in Slovakia and 43 percent in the Czech Republic — they are also worried about their standing within the EU.

Both Bratislava and Prague face their own challenges with populism and political corruption, but their political interests increasingly converge more with Germany and Austria, with which their economies are already closely intertwined, than with their former Warsaw Pact neighbors. That’s particularly true of Slovakia, which is the only country in the region that belongs to the euro. If the pair’s economies continue on the current trajectory, both are likely to join the ranks of the EU’s net payers during the bloc’s next long-term budget cycle. 

Despite the growing westernization of some parts of the Visegrad group, the Commission’s decision to play hardball with the region could yet backfire, especially if populist elements succeed in casting Brussels’ moves as part of a broader strategy to impose its will on the region. That happened over the migration issue, for example, making a compromise all but impossible.

The Commission’s failure to learn from that mistake highlights a more fundamental issue, said Milan Nič, a senior fellow with German Council on Foreign Relations who studies the region: “They don’t understand Eastern Europeans.”