brexit files insight

Liam Fox’s winning streak

The British trade secretary has had some wins this week but this is unlikely to last.

The U.K.’s Secretary of State for International Trade Liam Fox is on a winning streak as Brexit talks move into top gear. It’s unlikely to last.

First, the Sun reported there will be an international trade bill included in Wednesday’s queen’s speech, the British government’s new policy program. That is a victory for Fox over those in the government who would prefer caution and possibly a softer Brexit.

Second, Fox has secured a top negotiator to build the foundations of “Global Britain” — Crawford Falconer, a New Zealander and former WTO ace. That matters because the U.K. recruitment process for trade lawyers has until now been fraught.

When the U.K. voted for Brexit, the central government had no top-flight trade lawyers, having little need for their expertise during four decades of EU membership. Possible hires have slipped through the net since then, with candidates and potential candidates reporting rigid U.K. attitudes and rigid salary offers as stumbling blocks. Some qualified Brits also hate the idea of leaving EU jobs to work for a government that is undercutting their current careers and values.

Third, Fox is in the U.S. maneuvering for a transatlantic free-trade deal, and getting a warm reception. EU Commissioner for Trade Cecilia Malmström even invited him to keep up the work at a POLITICO event this morning in Brussels.

Malmström described Fox’s efforts as “within the red lines” and said that it is “quite natural” for the U.K. to explore its options with partners such as the U.S.

“Obviously if they were to start to negotiate, that would really be breaking a red line. But I don’t think they will,” Malmström said, adding that Fox had to get ready to renegotiate about 40 trade deals that the EU had completed on the U.K.’s behalf.

Asked if she welcomed competition from Fox and Falconer, the European trade commissioner said: “Absolutely.”

The conciliatory trade outlook from Brussels means that supporters of a soft Brexit will need to look to other tension points for leverage.

One of the most problematic parts of the Brexit negotiations is likely to be the Irish border. If the Republic and Northern Ireland are to keep their border invisible, it is almost certain that Britain would need to remain in the EU’s customs union, at least during some kind of transition period.

And as long as the U.K. remains in the customs union it would be prevented from negotiating separate trade deals.

If Britain is to succeed in its efforts to go global, Liam Fox will need more than a full diary and an antipodean negotiator.

He will need the Irish question to be answered, and in a way that preserves the fragile governing arrangement his Conservative Party is seeking with the Democratic Unionist Party from Northern Ireland.

Nothing is simple when it comes to Brexit.

This insight is from POLITICO‘s Brexit Files newsletter, a daily afternoon digest of the best coverage and analysis of Britain’s decision to leave the EU. Read today’s edition or subscribe here.