A glimpse into the future of the EU?

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A glimpse into the future of the EU?

March 15, 2020 | News | No Comments

A glimpse into the future of the EU?

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The Future of Europe Group – comprising the foreign ministers of 11 member states of the European Union – says that its report has attempted to address the continent’s long-term and short-term problems at a time when nationalism is rising and “a sense of belonging” is dwindling. Not all the proposals in the group’s report, published on Monday (17 September), are supported by every minister but they raise important questions about the future direction of the EU.

Economic and monetary union

For the most part, the foreign ministers’ views on economic and monetary union fall some way between what the European Commission is already considering and the more radical ideas floated for several years by various member states and MEPs. Their report insists that strengthening monetary union and finding solutions to the eurozone crisis must be treated as “an absolute priority”.

Democratic accountability and protection of the single market

The ministers emphasise that reform should be undertaken by all 27 European Union member states, not those of the eurozone. Some of their proposals challenge that conviction, however, and raise significant questions about how to protect the integrity of the single market. If decisions are taken that apply only to the eurozone, the ministers say, “ways should be explored to involve the MEPs from these countries”.

Greater EU powers

They call for the role of the European commissioner for economic and monetary affairs to be strengthened and for new rules to enforce national budget discipline that go beyond those already enshrined in the ‘six-pack’ legislation (in force since 13 December), and the two regulations included in the ‘two-pack’ legislation (currently the subject of negotiation between the Council of Ministers and the European Parliament). The ministers say that EU institutions – including, unlike under the current system, the Parliament – should have the power to oversee national budgets. Crucially, however, they say that “the responsibility of the member states for the composition of their budgets has to be fully respected”.

The ministers want “effective and binding” co-ordination at EU level of national labour market and pension rules and the voluntary commitments of the ‘euro plus’ pact, agreed last year, to be made binding. This includes areas such as tax policy co-ordination and labour-market reform.

“Bolder steps” are needed to improve the functioning of financial markets, ministers say, but many of their ideas are already on the Commission’s agenda. They include introducing a single banking supervisor and creating a common deposit-insurance scheme and a bank resolution fund – although the latter two are not supported by all ministers.

Eurobonds

Some ministers who contributed to the report – but not all – want the pooling of sovereign debt in the eurozone. This has long been a demand of France and many southern eurozone countries, but this has been consistently opposed by Germany.

The ‘firewall’

The eurozone’s rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), should be given greater powers so that it becomes a true “European Monetary Fund”, the ministers say. This would reignite the debate over moral hazard that saw Germany oppose expanding the fund.

Institutions

The European Commission

The foreign ministers preface their remarks on the structure of the Commission by saying: “The Commission must be strengthened so that it can fully and effectively fulfil its indispensable role as the engine of the Community method.” That, on the face of it, might suggest that they back a preservation of the Community method, in which the Commission proposes legislation, which is then voted on by the Council of Ministers and the Parliament. But the ministers also float ways to change this. “Some ministers suggested the creation of a double-hatted post of president of the Commission and president of the European Council,” the report says.

Some of the ministers support “a directly elected Commission president who appoints the members of his ‘European government’ himself, a European Parliament with the powers to initiate legislation and a second chamber for the member states.”

Number of European commissioners

They re-open the vexed issue of how many European commissioners there should be. The foreign ministers say that the Commission’s “internal organisation and its procedures should be strengthened (one possibility would be the creation of specific clusters with “senior” and “junior” commissioners); in the medium term, the number of commissioners “should be addressed”.

The presidency of Council meetings

The foreign ministers signal that they would like to reduce still further the role of the rotating presidency of the Council of Ministers. The foreign ministers are clearly concerned that, as the EU grows, it will become increasingly difficult for member states to agree on action. They want “in the medium term” to extend the scope of decisions to be taken by qualified majority, rather than unanimity.

European Parliament elections

The foreign ministers suggest ways to increase the Parliament’s “democratic visibility”. Each European political group should nominate a top candidate who would also stand for the post of Commission president. Elections to the Parliament should be held on the same day in all member states with a “limited” Europe-wide list of candidates.

Treaty changes

The foreign ministers argue that the enlargement of the EU makes it increasingly difficult to revise the EU treaties. They suggest that the requirement of unanimous support from all member states should be reduced to a requirement for a “super-qualified” majority of the member states and their population.

Foreign policy

‘Federation’ is not explicitly mentioned in the proposal, but foreign and defence policy would gain much of the centrality that they enjoy in federal and confederal systems. They suggest a European army could be formed, and want a foreign policy with much more “coherence” and “clout”.

Indeed, the proposals go further: the EU’s “comprehensive and integrated approach” to foreign policy would include “trade and external economic affairs policy, development aid, enlargement and neighbourhood policy, the management of migration flows, climate negotiations and energy security”. All these are aspects that fall – usually entirely – within the purview of the European Commission. Only development policy is explicitly mentioned as an addition to the competence of the European External Action Service (EEAS). However, the ministers’ call for a “substantial revision” of the EEAS’s competences, with the foreign policy chief being “rendered responsible for key external action areas”, suggests that they want a significant expansion of its authority, if not its responsibilities.

Schengen

The ministers propose the creation of a European border police corps to guard the external border of the Schengen area and, in the medium term, the introduction of a European visa. In theory, these would be major steps away from the inter-governmental origins of the Schengen area, which is made up of all but five EU member states (and four non-member states). In practice, the proposals might be less of a departure from the current approach.

Under the present set-up, Schengen member states issue visas through their national embassies or consulates abroad, according to their own procedures and conditions – but these are supposed to be consistent with general Schengen rules, and most types of visas are valid throughout the Schengen area. This means that already today, member states no longer have the unquestioned authority to deny entry to non-nationals.

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