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The Big Show Journal is no ordinary gun magazine. The print periodical, which appears on newsstands nationwide six times a year, is also, according to its website, "America’s most interesting gun and knife magazine" and "America’s most accurate and complete gun and knife show calendar." Gun enthusiasts may dispute the former claim—but the latter is less subjective than you might think.

In fact, The Big Show Journal might be the closest thing researchers have to a comprehensive record of gun shows in the US.

"There’s no readily compiled, publicly available database of where and when gun shows occur," says UC Berkeley epidemiologist Ellicott Matthay, who recently found herself in want of such a database. That includes the internet. When Matthay used the Wayback Machine to scour archived web pages for the dates and locations of past shows, she found gaps in the historical record; events she knew had happened were nowhere to be found. So she turned to trade magazines instead. The Big Show Journal, true to its claim, proved more comprehensive than competing publications like Gun List Magazine and Gun and Knife Show Calendar.

Matthay needed that data to test a hypothesis about gun violence in America. Gun shows—of which the US sees about 4,000 per year—account for between 4 and 9 percent of firearm sales. As a public health researcher, Matthay knew that gun ownership increases the risk of suicide, homicide, and unintentional casualties in the home, and that firearms acquired from gun shows are disproportionately implicated in crimes. Matthay wanted to know if gun shows could lead to increased rates of gun violence, specifically in her home state of California. And the numbers she needed to find out were buried not in a government database, but in back issues of a big, glossy gun magazine.

But magazines are hard to mine for data. So Matthay set to work, scanning issues of The Big Show Journal published between 2005 and 2013 in the copy room at UC Berkeley's school of public health. She used optical character recognition software to convert the scans into alphanumeric data. Then she trained an algorithm to isolate the dates and locations of gun shows in California and neighboring Nevada, which shares the largest border with the state.

When Matthay was finished, she cross referenced her database with death records from the California Department of Public Health, along with ER and inpatient hospitalization records collected by the state. By comparing death and injury rates for the two weeks before and after each gun show, Matthay could see whether firearm casualties increased in nearby California areas in the wakes of California and Nevada gun shows.

Her hypothesis turned out to be half right: California gun shows did not appear to have a significant effect on local gun violence. But in regions near Nevada shows, rates of death and injury due to firearms spiked by 70 percent.

That staggering disparity could boil down to policy differences. California's gun laws are among the most stringent in the country. Nevada, in contrast, has some of the least restrictive—and no explicit regulations on gun shows. Data from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives—which monitors where guns originate and where law enforcement recovers them—shows that firearms have a knack for flooding into states with tough gun laws from those without. (To cite just one example: Sixty percent of guns used to commit crimes in Chicago between 2009 and 2013 originated outside of Illinois.) A state's gun laws, it seems, can be undermined by those of its neighbors.

But that kind of inter-state analysis isn’t always possible. Many states—Nevada among them—don't require documentation of private gun sales.

"If a gun originated in Pennsylvania, changed hands between private parties at a Nevada gun show, and resulted in a firearm death or injury in California, even if we were to trace it, we'd have no way of knowing it was ever in Nevada," Matthay says. What's more, ATF only tracks the provenance of guns recovered from crime scenes. But not all crimes involving guns result in injury or death. Conversely, not all firearm casualties—particularly unintended injuries—are logged as crimes.

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So researchers like Matthay have to use trickier methods to understand the impact of firearms. "The biggest challenge, when it comes to understanding gun violence, is money—but the second biggest is data," says Frederick Rivara, an epidemiologist at the University of Washington and an expert on gun violence. The NRA's efforts to stymie gun research are extensive, palpable, and well documented: When a car kills somebody in the US, the details of the incident go into a massive government database. No such database exists for gun deaths. If you want to study firearms in this country—how they move, the way they're used, how often they murder and maim—you have to get creative. See: scanning old gun magazines by hand.

But with limited data comes limited information. Matthay's study didn't trace any guns, so it's unclear whether California's post-show spike in gun violence is tied to an inundation of Nevada firearms. (It could be due to an influx of ammunition, for example.) Neither did the study examine associations with firearm casualties in Nevada. (“We could do that,” Matthay says, for Nevada and neighbor states like Oregon and Arizona, “but we would need additional funding.”) Likewise, there's no telling if the link between gun shows and gun violence is causal. A randomized controlled trial—the gold standard of evidence in medical and epidemiological circles—could help isolate the signal. But researchers can't exactly go around exposing random populations to gun shows. "That would not be ethical," Matthay says, not to mention unfeasible.

Still, the study does paint a more nuanced picture of the relationship between gun shows and gun violence. By accounting for deaths and injuries ATF's data overlooks, Matthay's research points not only to the effectiveness of California's gun laws, but the pitfalls of porous borders—two valuable insights that policy makers can use to inform laws at the state and federal levels.

"That's our job as investigators—to see if those laws help or not and determine whether they should be more widespread, to reduce the total gun violence," Rivara says.

With the help of Congress, researchers like Matthay could do that job much more effectively. Until then, they'll make do with the data they have.

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Earlier this month, people in Central Park noticed the presence of a majestic Mandarin duck. As quickly as he was there, he was gone. But he’s back. With his bright pink beak, mohawk of blue and gold, and proud chest feathers of royal purple, the mysterious visitor has returned—and quickly captured our collective heart.

Dubbed “glamour duck,” by Twitter and the fashion magazine Elle, the New York Times sent a reporter and photographer to cover his perplexing appearance on a pond in the southern tip of the city’s biggest park. Mandarin ducks aren’t native to New York, and the nearby Central Park Zoo told Gothamist the duck wasn’t one of theirs.

Regardless of his origin, the paper of record found New York City birders in a state of near ecstasy as they caught a glimpse of the babe bird. As one person put it on Twitter, “life goals: the unnamed mandarin duck that mysteriously appeared in central park and has sent every birdwatcher into a fainting spell.”

His existence also seemed to keep Twitter happy for some time, a tough feat on Halloween, when timelines are replete with gaud and glitter. But the duck easily outshined posted pictures of bedazzled beelzebubs and frocked flocks. (Humans dressing as birds surely couldn’t compete, though he did inspire some fun holiday-themed ribbing: “he’s just a mallard in a good halloween costume, okay.”)

The here-then-gone-then-here-again appearance of the #birb (as Twitter loves to lovingly refer to pretty, pretty birdies) plus the internet’s instant oatmeal obsession with him inspired WIRED’s Paris Martineau to propose a different nickname for the fowl: duckboi, a reference to the term that means, roughly, a good looking player interested in only in sex, who’ll lead you on and never commit.

It’s a funny term, sure, but remember, commitment goes both ways. The surge of duck tales quickly gave way to political stories and memes and misinformation and all the general sadness and horror and grief commonly found in our feeds. People tried to bring the duck back. “More duck in the timelines, please!” tweeted Bloomberg Business reporter Rebecca Greenfield.

But, glamour duck’s 15 minutes will expire. They may have already expired by the time this story is published. The realities of life–the very serious election coming up, the trick-or-treating that needs to be completed before sunset, the candy that needs to be hidden from children and eaten by their parents–will all conspire to make us forget little duckboi.

He will be eclipsed by a different animal on the loose, an alligator doing something it shouldn’t or a mountain lion in a place it doesn’t belong. He will become the #mprraccoon, who scaled the building in Minnesota earlier this year. Or the goats that ran around Queens in August until none other than America’s dad, Jon Stewart, rescued them and had them sent to a farm sanctuary up state. He will be the Bronx zoo snake. The escaped zoo flamingo who has lived for years in Texas, spotted now and then doing its thing, all alone. The mountain lion that Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff spotted in San Francisco. He will be the Times Square bees. The llamas on the loose in Arizona. Or, the saddest shared social media animal moment of all: the escaped bull in Brooklyn, who in February of 2017 ran away from the butchers trying to slaughter him, speeding through the streets, capturing the hearts and minds of a city who rooted for him like he was a real-life Ferdinand the Bull, only to be shot by police. Let’s hope the little birb doesn’t meet the same fatal fate, but let’s accept that he will melt into the collective consciousness like all the other out-of-place, out-of-time animals before him.

Because while duckboi captures our heart today, every few months, social media finds a different animal to lionize, so to speak. Why? A theory: because they represent not only our own lost wildness, but seeing them in a place they should not be, usually by escaping a place they should not have been in the first place, gives us some sort of glimpse into what it means to be free. These animals on the loose are the perfect metaphor for our time: doomed questers trying to escape the confines of our age. They just want to be llamas, or cows, or bees, buzzing and bleeting and bellowing. And for a moment, as we watch, we’re free from our desks and duties, we’re out there, with the sun on our face with them, wild and lost but existing, even if it’s for a short moment.

Eventually, though, we will move on. We will forget about glamour duck. And we will wonder if he ever knew how loved he was. Isn’t that just like a duckboi?

When Rebecca Goldin spoke to a recent class of incoming freshmen at George Mason University, she relayed a disheartening statistic: According to a recent study, 36 percent of college students don’t significantly improve in critical thinking during their four-year tenure. “These students had trouble distinguishing fact from opinion, and cause from correlation,” Goldin explained.

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She went on to offer some advice: “Take more math and science than is required. And take it seriously.” Why? Because “I can think of no better tool than quantitative thinking to process the information that is thrown at me.” Take, for example, the study she had cited. A first glance, it might seem to suggest that a third of college graduates are lazy or ignorant, or that higher education is a waste. But if you look closer, Goldin told her bright-eyed audience, you’ll find a different message: “Turns out, this third of students isn’t taking any science.”

Goldin, a professor of mathematical sciences at George Mason, has made it her life’s work to improve quantitative literacy. In addition to her research and teaching duties, she volunteers as a coach at math clubs for elementary- and middle-school students. In 2004, she became the research director of George Mason’s Statistical Assessment Service, which aimed “to correct scientific misunderstanding in the media resulting from bad science, politics or a simple lack of information or knowledge.” The project has since morphed into STATS (run by the nonprofit Sense About Science USA and the American Statistical Association), with Goldin as its director. Its mission has evolved too: It is now less of a media watchdog and focuses more on education. Goldin and her team run statistics workshops for journalists and have advised reporters at publications including FiveThirtyEight, ProPublica and The Wall Street Journal.

When Quanta first reached out to Goldin, she worried that her dual “hats”—those of a mathematician and a public servant—were too “radically different” to reconcile in one interview. In conversation, however, it quickly became apparent that the bridge between these two selves is Goldin’s conviction that mathematical reasoning and study is not only widely useful, but also pleasurable. Her enthusiasm for logic—whether she’s discussing the manipulation of manifolds in high-dimensional spaces or the meaning of statistical significance—is infectious. “I love, love, love what I do,” she said. It’s easy to believe her—and to want some of that delight for oneself.

Quanta Magazine spoke with Goldin about finding beauty in abstract thought, how STATS is arming journalists with statistical savvy, and why mathematical literacy is empowering. An edited and condensed version of the conversation follows.

Where does your passion for mathematics and quantitative thought come from?

As a young person I never thought I liked math. I absolutely loved number sequences and other curious things that, in retrospect, were very mathematical. At the dinner table, my dad, who is a physicist, would pull out some weird puzzle or riddle that sometimes only took a minute to solve, and other times I’d be like, “Huh, I have no idea how that one works!” But there was an overall framework of joy around solving it.

When did you recognize you could apply that excitement about puzzles to pursuing math professionally?

Actually very late in the game. I was always very strong in math, and I did a lot of math in high school. This gave me the false sense that I knew what math was about: I felt like every next step was a little bit more of the same, just more advanced. It was very clear in my mind that I didn’t want to be a mathematician.

But when I went to college at Harvard, I took a course in topology, which is the study of spaces. It wasn’t like anything I’d seen before. It wasn’t calculus; it wasn’t complex calculations. The questions were really complicated and different and interesting in a way I had never expected. And it was just kind of like I fell in love.

You study primarily symplectic and algebraic geometry. How do you describe what you do to people who aren’t mathematicians?

One way I might describe it is to say that I study symmetries of mathematical objects. This comes about when you’re interested in things like our universe, where the Earth is rotating, and it’s also rotating around the sun, and the sun is in a larger system that is rotating. All those rotations are symmetries. There are a lot of other ways symmetries come up, and they can get really, really complicated. So we use neat mathematical objects to think about them, called groups. This is useful because if you’re trying to solve equations, and you know you have symmetries, you can essentially find a way mathematically to get rid of those symmetries and make your equations simpler.

What motivates you to study these complex symmetries?

I just think they’re really beautiful. A lot of mathematics ultimately is artistic rather than useful. Sometimes you see a picture that’s got a lot of symmetry in it, like an M.C. Escher sketch, and it’s like, “Wow, that’s just so amazing!” But when you study mathematics, you start to “see” things in higher dimensions. You’re not necessarily visualizing them in the same way that you could with a sculpture or piece of art. But you start to feel like this whole system of objects that you’re looking at, and the symmetries it has, are really just beautiful. There’s no other good word.

How did you get involved with STATS?

When I arrived as a professor at George Mason, I knew I wanted to do more than research and mathematics. I love teaching, but I felt like I wanted to do something for the world that was not part of the ivory tower of just solving problems that I thought were really curious and interesting.

When I first joined what became STATS, it was a little bit more “gotcha” work: looking at how the media talks about science and mathematics and pointing out when someone has gotten it wrong. As we’ve evolved, I’ve become more and more interested in how journalists think about quantitative issues and how they process them. We found pretty early in our work that there was this huge gap of knowledge and education: Journalists were writing about things that had quantitative content, but they often didn’t absorb what they were writing about, and didn’t understand it, and didn’t have any way to do better because they were often on really tight timelines with limited resources.

So how has your work at STATS changed?

Our mission at STATS has changed to focus on offering journalists two things. One is to be available to answer quantitative questions. They could be as simple as “I don’t know how to calculate this percentage,” or they could be pretty sophisticated things, like “I’ve got this data, and I want to apply this model to it, and I just want to make sure that I’m handling the outliers correctly.” The other really cool thing that we do is, we go to individual news agencies and offer workshops on things like confidence intervals, statistical significance, p values, and all this highly technical language.

Someone once described to me the advice he gives to journalists. He says, “You should always have a statistician in your back pocket.” That’s what we hope to be.

What are the most common pitfalls of reporting on statistics?

A favorite one is distinguishing between causation and correlation. People say, “Oh, that’s obvious. Of course there’s a difference between those two things.” But when you get into examples that target our belief system, it’s really hard to disassociate them. Part of the problem, I think, is that scientists themselves always want to know more than they can with the tools they have. And they don’t always make clear that the questions they’re answering aren’t necessarily the ones you might think they’re answering.

What do you mean?

Like, you might be interested in knowing whether taking hormones is helpful or harmful to women who are postmenopausal. So you start out with a question that’s really well-defined: Does it help or hurt? But you can’t necessarily answer that question. What you can answer is the question of whether women who take hormones whom you enroll in your study — those specific women — have an increase or decrease in, say, heart disease rates or breast cancer rates or stroke rates compared to a control group or to the general population. But that may not answer your initial question, which is: “Is that going to be the case for me? Or people like me? Or the population as a whole?”

What do you hope STATS will achieve?

Partly our goal is to help change the culture of journalism so that people recognize the importance of using quantitative arguments and thinking about quantitative issues before they come to conclusions. That way, they’re coming to conclusions that are supported by science rather than using a study to further their own agenda — which is something scientists do too; they may push a certain interpretation of something. We want to arm journalists with a certain amount of rigor in their thinking so they can challenge a scientist who might say, “Well, you just don’t understand my sophisticated statistic.” There’s a lot of value in giving reporters the tools to develop their sense of quantitative skepticism so that they’re not just bullied.

You argue that statistical literacy gives citizens a kind of power. What do you mean?

What I mean is that if we don’t have the ability to process quantitative information, we can often make decisions that are more based on our beliefs and our fears than based on reality. On an individual level, if we have the ability to think quantitatively, we can make better decisions about our own health, about our own choices with regard to risk, about our own lifestyles. It’s very empowering to not be scared or bullied into doing things one way or another.

On a collective level, the impact of being educated in general is huge. Think about what democracy would be if most of us couldn’t read. We aspire to a literate society because it allows for public engagement, and I think this is also true for quantitative literacy. The more we can get people to understand how to view the world in a quantitative way, the more successful we can be at getting past biases and beliefs and prejudices.

You’ve also said that getting people to understand statistics requires more than reciting numbers. Why do you think storytelling is important for conveying statistical concepts?

As human beings, we live in stories. It doesn’t matter how quantitative you are, we’re all influenced by stories. They become like statistics in our mind. So if you report the statistics without the story, you don’t get nearly the level of interest or emotion or willingness to engage with the ideas.

How has the media’s use of data changed in the 13 years you’ve been with STATS?

With the internet, we see a tremendous growth in data produced by search engines. Journalists are becoming much more adept at collecting these kinds of data and using them in media articles. I think that the current president is also causing a lot of reflection on what we mean by facts, and in that sense journalists maybe think of it as more important in general to get the facts right.

That’s interesting. So you think the public’s awareness of “fake” news and “alternative” facts is motivating journalists to be more rigorous about fact checking?

I do think it’s very motivating. Of course sometimes information gets spun. But ultimately a very small percentage of journalists do that. I think 95 percent of both journalists and scientists are really working hard to get it right.

I’m surprised you’re not more jaded about the media.

Ha! This is maybe more a life view. I think there are people who are pessimistic about humankind and people who are optimistic.

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You also volunteer with math clubs for kids. What ideas about math and math culture do you try to get across?

I try to bring in problems that are really different and fun and curious and weird. For example, I’ve done an activity with kids where I’ve brought in a bunch of ribbons, and I had them learn a little bit about a field called knot theory. There are two things I’m trying to get across to them. One is that math in school is not the whole story—there’s this whole other world that is logical but also beautiful and creative. The second message is a certain emotional framework that I have to offer: that math is a joyous experience.

Original story reprinted with permission from Quanta Magazine, an editorially independent publication of the Simons Foundation whose mission is to enhance public understanding of science by covering research developments and trends in mathematics and the physical and life sciences.

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Once upon a time, the company with the biggest screens in the world made a big bet on virtual reality. Imax opened seven VR centers in movie theaters around the globe, each of which hosted a rotating selection of games, social experiences, and short narrative pieces. It set up a $50 million fund to develop content for those centers. It partnered with Google to build a next-generation camera that would allow filmmakers to realize their next-generation VR dreams.

Then it all disappeared. The camera project was canceled. That $50 million fund resulted in a single title, a Justice League tie-in that was so not-supersized that it could be purchased and played by home consumers. The VR centers started to close. This past December, Imax let shareholders know that the rest of it—the remaining centers and "certain VR content investments"—would be winding down as well.

That was that, it seemed. VR and movie theaters seemed like a good match in theory, but if a player like Imax bows out, what chance would those crazy kids have?

A pretty good one, as it turns out. Because while Imax was closing its centers, other big theater chains were tiptoeing into the space, using a different playbook. Better VR, fewer locations, and taking it nice and slow.

The newest of those slow-roll experiments opens today at a massive multiplex in suburban San Jose, California. Carved into the cavernous lobby of the Century 20 Oakridge, a sleek wood-and-light mini-lobby sells tickets to the debut experience from VR company Spaces. Terminator Salvation: Fight For the Future is a four-person experience structured like a real-life action movie. It's ridiculous in some very good ways. It's also the second test area opened by Cinemark, the third-biggest theater chain in the US—and the best indicator yet that Imax's mistake wasn't enthusiasm but selectivity.

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Location-based virtual reality (LBVR) has been a ray of light in VR's otherwise dreary economic dawn. But like any consumer entertainment sector, it's a big enough term to encompass a wide continuum of quality. On the cheap end are mall kiosks and "VRcades" that let you wear a decent headset—or sometimes a low-powered mobile one—to experience titles that are commercially available for home headset users.

The other end of the continuum is something so different as to feel like another technology altogether. Companies like The Void, Dreamscape Immersive, and Zero Latency offer customers high-end, bespoke VR experiences that are unlike anything on the market. Backpacks and haptic vests let you roam freely around a large space; trackers on your hands and feet make sure that you can see your own body—and everyone else's bodies as well. Everything you see in VR is mapped to the physical space, so if you reach out your hand to touch a wall or grip a railing you see in VR, you'll really touch it. Even real-world props are tracked, so you can wield tools and weapons or pick up objects. Blowers, misters, and rumble panels bombard you with external stimuli that match up with the virtual world. The result is a tactile wonderland that amplifies your sense of presence and the memories you come away with.

That's what Spaces built with its Terminator experience, and it's what convinced Cinemark CEO Mark Zoradi to partner with the VR company when he demo'd the technology a little more than a year ago. "It was extraordinary from a tech standpoint," he says. "But the social aspect was really innovative. You don’t do this individually—you’re on a team and you’re seeing each other’s faces. It’s very much a shared social experience. We just thought that was spectacular."

When he says "you're seeing each other's faces," he means it. Once customers enter the Spaces mini-lobby, they choose a call sign and get their face scanned. Then, after they receive a mission briefing from actors and get geared up in action-movie style—vest, hand and foot trackers, headset, and what can only be referred to as a big-ass gun—they're ushered into VR as a team of four, each avatar wearing the face of the real-life person. That makes the ensuing 12-minute adventure, in which you band together to restore a satellite and escape a crumbling city, all while running around fending off hordes of Terminators, as goofy and fun as it sounds. Afterward, you can get a video of your adventure, perfectly cut for maximum social sharing (and business-driving).

The result is something that's very different from just paying to play Beat Saber in a VRcade. "The early adopters that went to market—and God bless them for putting themselves out there—were trying to sell VR," says Shiraz Akmal, CEO of Spaces, which also has locations in Irvine, California, and Tokyo. "I want a family to come in, have an amazing time, and VR is part of it, but what they remember is the experience."

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Cinemark isn't alone in thinking this way. AMC has committed to establishing Dreamscape Immersive's "pods" in at least four theaters and standalone locations starting later this year. (Dreamscape's first stand-alone location in Los Angeles has been booked solid since it opened in December.) Regal Cinemas seems to be opting for an Imax-lite, see-what-works approach, rolling out non-free-roam movie-related experiences in a handful of theaters.

It's all part of adapting to an entertainment landscape that's not as friendly as it used to be. "Cinemark and other exhibitors are facing a lot of competition—not just from each other and other out-of-home entertainment venues but streaming as well," says Alexis Macklin, an analyst with Greenlight Insights, a market intelligence firm focused on virtual and augmented reality. "Movie theaters are really focused on bringing in premium experiences that you can’t really do at home. VR's the next step for that."

The key here is pace. "We could have said, 'Let’s do 25 of these things because we know we’re right,'" Zoradi says of the company's approach. "We’re not quite that arrogant. We really believe in the technology, we really believe in the experience, but we chose two companies and said let’s do a test lab with each one." The first one of those, in the company's backyard of Plano, Texas, hosted The Void's well-reviewed Star Wars: Secrets of the Empire.

Still, this rarefied tier remains nascent. Based on Greenlight Insights' tracking data, by the end of 2019 "free-roam" VR will exist in fewer than 1,000 places around the world—and only 36 of those places will be movie theaters. (The rest will be theme parks, tourist attractions, dedicated facilities, and other entertainment destinations.)

But while Cinemark is looking at this as a test, Mark Zoradi thinks he knows what the outcome will be. He imagines a future with staggered programming, playing one experience for families on weekday afternoons and another at night for teens and grown-ups. He's gonna make sure you know about it. "We’ve got over a million people walking into the theater every year," he says. "You cannot walk in and not see it."

So don't weep for VR quite yet. The coming attractions are pretty promising.

How to Solve the Biggest Mystery in Physics

March 20, 2019 | Story | No Comments

Suppose aliens land on our planet and want to learn our current scientific knowledge. I would start with the 40-year-old documentary Powers of Ten. Granted, it’s a bit out of date, but this short film, written and directed by the famous designer couple Charles and Ray Eames, captures in less than 10 minutes a comprehensive view of the cosmos.

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Original story reprinted with permission from Quanta Magazine, an editorially independent publication of the Simons Foundation whose mission is to enhance public understanding of science by covering research developments and trends in mathematics and the physical and life sciences.

The script is simple and elegant. When the film begins, we see a couple picnicking in a Chicago park. Then the camera zooms out. Every 10 seconds the field of vision gains a power of 10—from 10 meters across, to 100, to 1,000 and onward. Slowly the big picture reveals itself to us. We see the city, the continent, Earth, the solar system, neighboring stars, the Milky Way, all the way to the largest structures of the universe. Then in the second half of the film, the camera zooms in and delves into the smallest structures, uncovering more and more microscopic details. We travel into a human hand and discover cells, the double helix of the DNA molecule, atoms, nuclei and finally the elementary quarks vibrating inside a proton.

The movie captures the astonishing beauty of the macrocosm and microcosm, and it provides the perfect cliffhanger endings for conveying the challenges of fundamental science. As our then-8-year-old son asked when he first saw it, “How does it continue?” Exactly! Comprehending the next sequence is the aim of scientists who are pushing the frontiers of our understanding of the largest and smallest structures of the universe. Finally, I could explain what Daddy does at work!

Powers of Ten also teaches us that, while we traverse the various scales of length, time and energy, we also travel through different realms of knowledge. Psychology studies human behavior, evolutionary biology examines ecosystems, astrophysics investigates planets and stars, and cosmology concentrates on the universe as a whole. Similarly, moving inward, we navigate the subjects of biology, biochemistry, and atomic, nuclear and particle physics. It is as if the scientific disciplines are formed in strata, like the geological layers on display in the Grand Canyon.

Moving from one layer to another, we see examples of emergence and reductionism, these two overarching organizing principles of modern science. Zooming out, we see new patterns “emerge” from the complex behavior of individual building blocks. Biochemical reactions give rise to sentient beings. Individual organisms gather into ecosystems. Hundreds of billions of stars come together to make majestic swirls of galaxies.

As we reverse and take a microscopic view, we see reductionism at work. Complicated patterns dissolve into underlying simple bits. Life reduces to the reactions among DNA, RNA, proteins and other organic molecules. The complexity of chemistry flattens into the elegant beauty of the quantum mechanical atom. And, finally, the Standard Model of particle physics captures all known components of matter and radiation in just four forces and 17 elementary particles.

Which of these two scientific principles, reductionism or emergence, is more powerful? Traditional particle physicists would argue for reductionism; condensed-matter physicists, who study complex materials, for emergence. As articulated by the Nobel laureate (and particle physicist) David Gross: Where in nature do you find beauty, and where do you find garbage?

Take a look at the complexity of reality around us. Traditionally, particle physicists explain nature using a handful of particles and their interactions. But condensed matter physicists ask: What about an everyday glass of water? Describing its surface ripples in terms of the motions of the roughly 1024 individual water molecules—let alone their elementary particles—would be foolish. Instead of the impenetrable complexities at small scales (the “garbage”) faced by traditional particle physicists, condensed matter physicists use the emergent laws, the “beauty” of hydrodynamics and thermodynamics. In fact, when we take the number of molecules to infinity (the equivalent of maximal garbage from a reductionist point of view), these laws of nature become crisp mathematical statements.

While many scientists praise the phenomenally successful reductionist approach of the past centuries, John Wheeler, the influential Princeton University physicist whose work touched on topics from nuclear physics to black holes, expressed an interesting alternative. “Every law of physics, pushed to the extreme, will be found to be statistical and approximate, not mathematically perfect and precise,” he said. Wheeler pointed out an important feature of emergent laws: Their approximate nature allows for a certain flexibility that can accommodate future evolution.

In many ways, thermodynamics is the gold standard of an emergent law, describing the collective behavior of a large number of particles, irrespective of many microscopic details. It captures an astonishingly wide class of phenomena in succinct mathematical formulas. The laws hold in great universality—indeed, they were discovered before the atomic basis of matter was even established. And there are no loopholes. For example, the second law of thermodynamics states that a system’s entropy—a measure of the amount of hidden microscopic information—will always grow in time.

Modern physics provides a precise language to capture the way things scale: the so-called renormalization group. This mathematical formalism allows us to go systematically from the small to the large. The essential step is taking averages. For example, instead of looking at the behavior of individual atoms that make up matter, we can take little cubes, say 10 atoms wide on each side, and take these cubes as our new building blocks. One can then repeat this averaging procedure. It is as if for each physical system one makes an individual Powers of Ten movie.

Renormalization theory describes in detail how the properties of a physical system change if one increases the length scale on which the observations are made. A famous example is the electric charge of particles that can increase or decrease depending on quantum interactions. A sociological example is understanding the behavior of groups of various sizes starting from individual behavior. Is there wisdom in crowds, or do the masses behave less responsibly?

Most interesting are the two endpoints of the renormalization process: the infinite large and infinite small. Here things will typically simplify because either all details are washed away, or the environment disappears. We see something like this with the two cliffhanger endings in Powers of Ten. Both the largest and the smallest structures of the universe are astonishingly simple. It is here that we find the two “standard models,” of particle physics and cosmology.

Remarkably, modern insights about the most formidable challenge in theoretical physics—the push to develop a quantum theory of gravity—employ both the reductionist and emergent perspectives. Traditional approaches to quantum gravity, such as perturbative string theory, try to find a fully consistent microscopic description of all particles and forces. Such a “final theory” necessarily includes a theory of gravitons, the elementary particles of the gravitational field. For example, in string theory, the graviton is formed from a string that vibrates in a particular way. One of the early successes of string theory was a scheme to compute the behavior of such gravitons.

However, this is only a partial answer. Einstein taught us that gravity has a much wider scope: It addresses the structure of space and time. In a quantum-mechanical description, space and time would lose their meaning at ultrashort distances and time scales, raising the question of what replaces those fundamental concepts.

A complementary approach to combining gravity and quantum theory started with the groundbreaking ideas of Jacob Bekenstein and Stephen Hawking on the information content of black holes in the 1970s, and came into being with the seminal work of Juan Maldacena in the late 1990s. In this formulation, quantum space-time, including all the particles and forces in it, emerges from a completely different “holographic” description. The holographic system is quantum mechanical, but doesn’t have any explicit form of gravity in it. Furthermore, it typically has fewer spatial dimensions. The system is, however, governed by a number that measures how large the system is. If one increases that number, the approximation to a classical gravitational system becomes more precise. In the end, space and time, together with Einstein’s equations of general relativity, emerge out of the holographic system. The process is akin to the way that the laws of thermodynamics emerge out of the motions of individual molecules.

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In some sense, this exercise is exactly the opposite of what Einstein tried to achieve. His aim was to build all of the laws of nature out of the dynamics of space and time, reducing physics to pure geometry. For him, space-time was the natural “ground level” in the infinite hierarchy of scientific objects—the bottom of the Grand Canyon. The present point of view thinks of space-time not as a starting point, but as an end point, as a natural structure that emerges out of the complexity of quantum information, much like the thermodynamics that rules our glass of water. Perhaps, in retrospect, it was not an accident that the two physical laws that Einstein liked best, thermodynamics and general relativity, have a common origin as emergent phenomena.

In some ways, this surprising marriage of emergence and reductionism allows one to enjoy the best of both worlds. For physicists, beauty is found at both ends of the spectrum.

This week, some of gaming's biggest franchise names are in some questionable places. We've got the trials and tribulations of Star Wars games, the questionable sexual politics of Assassin's Creed, and some weird advertising for Kingdom Hearts. Are you ready? I know I am.

EA Cancels Another Star Wars Game, and It's Starting to Look Like a Pattern

I sense a disturbance in the Force—something has gone wrong with the Star Wars license at Electronic Arts. According to a report from Kotaku, EA has canceled an open-world Star Wars game in progress at EA Vancouver. In fact, you may remember mention of the game last year, when EA shut down Visceral Games, which was also developing a now-canceled Star Wars project; EA Vancouver took over the project.

The game was canceled, reportedly, due to EA wanting to move forward with a smaller project that would come out sooner. But the results of EA's Star Wars licensing is by now concerning, with two middling Battlefront games, one of which nearly singlehandedly started a worldwide controversy over how bad loot boxes are, and at least two known canceled projects. (Respawn Entertainment is currently working on Star Wars: Jedi Fallen Order for release later this year.) EA has a deal to be the sole producer of Star Wars console games. One has to wonder if Disney and Lucasfilm are regretting it.

Assassin's Creed Odyssey Makes Heterosexuality Compulsory, Apologies Immediately

One of the big selling points of Odyssey, the latest Assassin's Creed title, is that the protagonist—whether lady Kassandra or dude Alexios—could romance a wide variety of characters without being restricted to one gender. It was lauded, upon release, for actual solid LGBT representation—simply letting players romance whomever they wanted. It's a level of goodwill that Ubisoft seemed intent to squander almost immediately, with new DLC that forces your player to settle down and get down to some good ol' heterosexual procreation. And the achievement for completing this DLC? It's called "Growing Up," which, uh, implies that all that gayness was just a phase? I guess? Gay 'til Assassin Graduation?

Ubisoft apologized roughly a day after the DLC dropped, which is nice—though the apology isn't ideal. "Understanding how attached you feel to your Kassandra and your Alexios is humbling and knowing we let you down is not something we take lightly," said Jonathan Dumont, the game's creative director. That's great, but it misses the point slightly. The anger isn't necessarily over losing control of a character's arc; it's about having a gay-/bi-friendly space made into one that is, well, not. No one appreciates being told they're welcome, only to then be shoved into a closet.

Utada Hikaru Will Sing Kingdom Hearts Songs to You, Because VR Is Still Weird

Kingdom Hearts 3 comes out in just a week and a half or so, and Square Enix's marketing is in full force. Now, in collaboration with Sony, PlayStation VR will offer an intimate concert experience featuring Utada Hikaru, the Japanese pop star who's been writing songs for the games since 2001. According to Variety, the experience will be available starting January 18 (that's today, reader!), and will feature Hikaru singing songs directly to you, the viewer.

Maybe I'm just not as up on VR as some of my colleagues, but this seems really odd as an advertising move. Yes, an intimate concert experience, just me and … some strange woman … in my house. Singing about videogames. I'm confused. They're great songs, though! So there's that.

Recommendation of the Week: Resident Evil 7 on PlayStation 4, Xbox One, and PC

I'm not sure why, but I've been thinking about this game a lot lately. Taking the survival horror series to first-person, this game also took it back to its roots of tense puzzle solving, terrified combat, and a lot of anxiously creeping around corridors. Trapped in a rotting Louisiana manor, it's like a zombie movie was given a rewrite by Faulkner, then had all the deep metaphorical parts replaced by evil ladies with bees shooting out of their chests. It's one of the most unsettling and enthralling games I've played in ages, and I'm itching to go back to it again. If you missed out on it in 2017, you gotta check it out.

[CORRECTION 2:25pm 1/22/19: The original headline for this story mischaracterized the Assassin's Creed: Odyssey DLC as involving "marriage"—but while heterosexual relationship does figure in the expansion, a wedding or mention of marriage does not. The headline has been updated accordingly.]

How Color Vision Came to the Animals

March 20, 2019 | Story | No Comments

Animals are living color. Wasps buzz with painted warnings. Birds shimmer their iridescent desires. Fish hide from predators with body colors that dapple like light across a rippling pond. And all this color on all these creatures happened because other creatures could see it.

The natural world is so showy, it’s no wonder scientists have been fascinated with animal color for centuries. Even today, the questions how animals see, create, and use color are among the most compelling in biology.

Until the last few years, they were also at least partially unanswerable—because color researchers are only human, which means they can’t see the rich, vivid colors that other animals do. But now new technologies, like portable hyperspectral scanners and cameras small enough to fit on a bird’s head, are helping biologists see the unseen. And as described in a new Science paper, it's a whole new world.

Visions of Life

The basics: Photons strike a surface—a rock, a plant, another animal—and that surface absorbs some photons, reflects others, refracts still others, all according to the molecular arrangement of pigments and structures. Some of those photons find their way into an animal’s eye, where specialized cells transmit the signals of those photons to the animal’s brain, which decodes them as colors and shapes.

It's the brain that determines whether the colorful thing is a distinct and interesting form, different from the photons from the trees, sand, sky, lake, and so on it received at the same time. If it’s successful, it has to decide whether this colorful thing is food, a potential mate, or maybe a predator. “The biology of color is all about these complex cascades of events,” says Richard Prum, an ornithologist at Yale University and co-author of the paper.

In the beginning, there was light and there was dark. That is, basic greyscale vision most likely evolved first, because animals that could anticipate the dawn or skitter away from a shadow are animals that live to breed. And the first eye-like structures—flat patches of photosensitive cells—probably didn't resolve much more than that. It wasn't enough. “The problem with using just light and dark is that the information is quite noisy, and one problem that comes up is determining where one object stops and another one starts. ” says Innes Cuthill, a behavioral ecologist at the University of Bristol and coauthor of the new review.

Color adds context. And context on a scene is an evolutionary advantage. So, just like with smart phones, better resolution and brighter colors became competitive enterprises. For the resolution bit, the patch light-sensing cells evolved over millions of years into a proper eye—first by recessing into a cup, then a cavity, and eventually a fluid-filled spheroid capped with a lens. For color, look deeper at those light-sensing cells. Wedged into their surfaces are proteins called opsins. Every time they get hit with a photon—a quantum piece of light itself—they transduce that signal into an electrical zap to the rudimentary animal's rudimentary brain. The original light/dark opsin mutated into spin-offs that could detect specific ranges of wavelengths. Color vision was so important that it evolved independently multiple times in the animal kingdom—in mollusks, arthropods, and vertebrates.

In fact, primitive fish had four different opsins, to sense four spectra—red, green, blue, and ultraviolet light. That four-fold ability is called tetrachromacy, and the dinosaurs probably had it. Since they're the ancestors of today’s birds, many of them are tetrachromats, too.

But modern mammals don't see things that way. That's probably because early mammals were small, nocturnal things that spent their first 100 million years running around in the dark, trying to keep from being eaten by tetrachromatic dinosaurs. “During that period the complicated visual system they inherited from their ancestors degraded,” says Prum. “We have a clumsy, retrofitted version of color vision. Fishes, and birds, and many lizards see a much richer world than we do."

In fact, most monkeys and apes are dichromats, and see the world as greyish and slightly red-hued. Scientists believe that early primates regained three-color vision because spotting fresh fruit and immature leaves led to a more nutritious diet. But no matter how much you enjoy springtime of fall colors, the wildly varicolored world we humans live in now isn't putting on a show for us. It's mostly for bugs and birds. “Flowering plants of course have evolved to signal pollinators,” says Prum. “The fact that we find them beautiful is incidental, and the fact that we can see them at all is because of an overlap in the spectrums insects and birds can see and the ones we can see.”

Covered in Color

And as animals gained the ability to sense color, evolution kickstarted an arms race in displays—hues and patterns that aided in survival became signifiers of ace baby-making skills. Almost every expression of color in the natural world came about to signal, or obscure, a creature to something else.

For instance, "aposematism" is color used as a warning—the butterfly’s bright colors say “don’t eat me, you'll get sick.” "Crypsis" is color used as camouflage. Color serves social purposes, too. Like, in mating. Did you know that female lions prefer brunets? Or that paper wasps can recognize each others’ faces? “Some wasps even have little black spots that act like karate belts, telling other wasps not to try and fight them,” says Elizabeth Tibbetts, an entomologist at the University of Michigan.

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But animals display colors using two very different methods. The first is with pigments, colored substances created by cells called chromatophores (in reptiles, fish, and cephalopods), and melanocytes (in mammals and birds). They absorb most wavelengths of light and reflect just a few, limiting both their range and brilliance. For instance, most animals cannot naturally produce red; they synthesize it from plant chemicals called carotenoids.

The other way animals make color is with nanoscale structures. Insects, and, to a lesser degree, birds, are the masters of color-based structure. And compared to pigment, structure is fabulous. Structural coloration scatters light into vibrant, shimmering colors, like the shimmering iridescent bib on a Broad-tailed hummingbird, or the metallic carapace of a Golden scarab beetle. And scientists aren't quite sure why iridescence evolved. Probably to signal mates, but still: Why?

Decoding the rainbow of life

The question of iridescence is similar to most questions scientists have about animal coloration. They understand what the colors do in broad strokes, but there's till a lot of nuance to tease out. This is mostly because, until recently, they were limited to seeing the natural world through human eyes. “If you ask the question, what’s this color for, you should approach it the way animals see those colors,” says Tim Caro, a wildlife biologist at UC Davis and the organizing force behind the new paper. (Speaking of mysteries, Caro recently figured out why zebras have stripes.)

Take the peacock. “The male’s tail is beautiful, and it evolved to impress the female. But the female may be impressed in a different way than you or I,” Caro says. Humans tend to gaze at the shimmering eyes at the tip of each tail feather; peahens typically look at the base of the feathers, where they attach to the peacock’s rump. Why does the peahen find the base of the feathers sexy? No one knows. But until scientists strapped to the birds' heads tiny cameras spun off from the mobile phone industry, they couldn't even track the peahens' gaze.

Another new tech: Advanced nanomaterials give scientists the ability to recreate the structures animals use to bend light into iridescent displays. By recreating those structures, scientists can figure out how genetically expensive they are to make.

Likewise, new magnification techniques have allowed scientists to look into an animal’s eye structure. You might have read about how mantis shrimp have not three or four but a whopping 12 different color receptors, and how they see the world in psychedelic hyperspectral saturation. This isn’t quite true. Those color channels aren’t linked together—not like they are in other animals. The shrimp probably aren’t seeing 12 different, overlapping color spectra. “We are thinking maybe those color receptors are being turned on or off by some other, non-color, signal,” says Caro.

But perhaps the most important modern innovation in biological color research is getting all the different people from different disciplines together. “There are a lot of different sorts of people working on color,” says Caro. “Some behavioral biologists, some neurophysiologists, some anthropologists, some structural biologists, and so on.”

And these scientists are scattered all over the globe. He says the reason he brought everyone to Berlin is so they could finally synthesize all these sub-disciplines together, and move into a broader understanding of color in the world. The most important technology in understanding animal color vision isn't a camera or a nanotech surface. It's an airplane. Or the internet.

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All week, WIRED's Culture team will be writing endorsement letters for various Emmy nominees in advance of next Monday's awards ceremony. Kicking things off: senior writer and almost definitely not Chechen mobster Jason Parham.

Does comedy, as a TV genre, have some greater purpose, or responsibility, other than to make us laugh? The best comedies on TV this year posed serious questions, but they weren’t, by traditional standards, all that funny: Of the eight nominees vying for Outstanding Comedy Series at next Monday’s Emmy Awards, only three felt like textbook satires.

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Cunning and permeable, the majority of the nominees hinted at the genre’s elastic progression. There’s Donald Glover’s Atlanta, too stubborn a creative outfit to pigeonhole itself into one tidy category. Its second season, the fittingly titled Robbin’ Season, was consumed with theft and the toll of loss, both physically and psychologically. Black-ish also ventured into darker provinces with its exploration of family decay, focusing on parents Dre (Anthony Anderson) and Bo’s (Tracee Ellis Ross) inevitable separation. Even feminist engines like GLOW and The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel flirted with distinctly sobering themes: the ache of immigration hardship, divorce and single motherhood, the prick of AIDS.

Then there’s Barry, the HBO series about Barry Berkman, a disaffected Midwest hitman-turned-actor in the throes of an existential crisis. With it, the prestige network proved the static half-hour comedy format could strive for meaning outside itself. That perhaps humor, empathy, and truth could be extracted from life’s more solemn notes—murder, violence, personal defeat. Barry didn’t just mine the tragic for comic; it did so better than any of its contemporaries in a year of standout television.

When we first meet our titular hero, played by former Saturday Night Live Renaissance man Bill Hader, he’s trapped in an emotionally dead-in job as a contract killer and wants out of the murder-for-hire business. Understandably, Barry is at a crossroads. That all changes, though, when he ends up in Los Angeles on an assignment tasked with killing a personal trainer who had an affair with a Chechen mobster’s wife. With a dose of serendipity, the hit leads Barry into an acting class. And it’s here, among an odd bunch of wannabes, where he finds his new purpose: aspiring thespian.

But the show, co-created by Hader and Silicon Valley showrunner Alec Berg, is not uniquely concerned with Barry’s pursuits inside the classroom, or on the stage—it’s curious as to how he’ll juggle his old life, as a hitman, with his new one, as an actor. The irony, of course, is that the one quirk that affords Barry success as an ace killer is also what makes him such a godawful actor: he’s a mostly forgettable schlub that easily fades into any background.

Acting, though, becomes a lifeline for Barry—it presents him with a chance to stall the erasure he’s faced with in his own trivial existence. In one of the show’s more baldly tear-worthy moments, he bares his soul to his acting teacher, going into detail about his military stint in Afghanistan and how he feels devoid of true purpose; the teacher, played with a swindler’s touch by Henry Winkler, confuses it for a monologue. “What’s that from?” he asks, eyebrows arched. “Are you telling me that was an improvisation? The story’s nonsense, but there’s something to work with.”

That, essentially, is the gist and genius of the show, which belongs to a new, more morose and deadly serious stripe of comedy. And it’s not just Barry who’s working against irrelevance—it’s the community of artists he’s surrounded himself with, all of whom are similarly trying to make something, anything, of their lives. Like Barry’s love interest, the emotionally volatile actress Sally Reed (Sarah Goldberg), utterly self-serving and willfully naive about her career. Or Gene M. Cousineau (Winkler), the laughably out-of-touch instructor who’s more Joanne the Scammer than Obi-Wan Kenobi. Even Barry’s boss, Fuches (Stephen Root), refuses to let him renounce his life as a hitman because it would further marginalize his own meaningless life. Set against a macabre landscape dotted with palm trees and weirdos, Barry’s bit players are what fuel the show’s loftier aim, the pursuit of redemption. It’s a show that squarely asks: Can a person actually remake himself?

All the while, bodies pile up. There’s blood. There’s death. There’s awkward encounter after awkward encounter. The series unfurls, sometimes with a stumble and other times in brilliant leaps (as it does in the final two episodes), across the outskirts of Los Angeles—North Hollywood, Studio City, the Valley. In this regard, thematically at least, Barry is very much a show about living on the periphery and trying to find your way back to the center. Any center.

Luckily, comedy itself has done away with its center. The influx of streaming giants have amply allowed comedies—“murder-coms” like Barry and Search Party, mockumentaries like American Vandal, absurdist fare like Kimmy Schmidt—more flexibility with interior approach to narrative. The creative flair of a show like Atlanta is that you don’t quite know what it’s looking for, or where it will land, or where its true north is.

Where Barry excels in this regard is its urgency toward empathy—and how it re-engineers that into a kind of power (the same way Showtimes’s SMILF and Netflix’s Atypical do). It wants us to feel for its heroes and anti-heroes even as they work against our better judgements. It’s a show that allows for destruction and daring, for failure and fickleness, in a single clip, even when—mostly when—there’s no expected punchline.

This week has been so long that it’s almost difficult to remember that it started with the horrific deaths of 11 people in a Pittsburgh synagogue, which prompted reports about the growth of anti-Semitism in the US, as well as the ways in which that anti-Semitism is mainstreamed for political purposes. It's weighty, depressing news, so it's no wonder that, by Wednesday, people were throwing themselves into Halloween, and the annual ritual of celebrities apologizing for costumes. Yet celebrity Halloween costumes seem like a small thing when compared to all the other events of the past week. Shall we step back and ruminate on them together? Yes, let's.

Send in the Troops

What Happened: In the middle of an already fraught week, President Trump decided to order thousands of soldiers to southern US border.

What Really Happened: It was Immigration Week at the White House last week, with President Trump trying to mobilize his base using overwrought rhetoric about the migrant caravan making its way to the US border from Honduras. Very little of what he said was true, but the midterms were a week away and it's not like baseless fear-mongering hurt him last time. But then, we’re in a different era, now. Maybe. Perhaps.

After weeks of talking about a the caravan that was coming to invade the US, President Trump started last week by announcing the deployment of 5,200 troops to the US-Mexico border, even though the caravan of migrants was still around 900 miles away, and unlikely to reach the US, anyway. It was pretty obviously a political stunt—made even more obvious by the mission's official name, "Faithful Patriot." (No, we didn't make that up.)

It's certainly a big deal—

—but is it a useful one? Maybe not.

So, they'll be there to … help law enforcement officials who are already there, but not there to do the thing that the president says they’re there for. I mean, sure, OK. After all, the troops are already arriving there and current estimates say the caravan, if it makes it, will likely arrive the last weekend in November, so it's not like the troops would have anything else to do. And it's only a few thousand troops. Surely there's no problem with that and it's all super cheap and above board, right?

Also, it's possible the troops could've been given something more productive to do.

It would be understandable for someone to look at the response to the deployment and think, Oh, maybe I should reconsider this whole thing. Apparently, that’s exactly what President Trump did, but he took things in a different direction than should have been expected.

Oh, man! That President Trump! He's playing four-dimensional chess again, isn't he?

The Takeaway: Of course, there's also the matter of what happens if and when the migrants arrive at the border.

Checking in on the Fourteenth Amendment

What Happened: President Trump vowed to end birthright citizenship for babies born to non-citizens and unauthorized immigrants.

What Really Happened: Of course, it's possible that sending troops to a border that's not actually under siege might not be enough to stop an invasion into the United States that's not actually happening. Perhaps, the president realized, he needs to mobilize his base on the issue even more and take bolder measures. That's almost certainly how this happened early last week:

You would need a constitutional amendment, actually, but we’ll get to that soon enough. For now, let's get back to Axios, which broke the story.

Is this a big deal? Yes; this would be a very big deal indeed.

Don't worry; it also had a fair amount of false claims.

Distraction or not, it was a massive story that reverberated across the internet. But was he correct that he could do it by executive order, considering it would mean reversing the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution?

That last one apparently got under the skin of the president, judging by this tweet the following day.

Well, this whole thing is turning out well, isn't it?

But, no, let's get back to what else President Trump had to say on Twitter while he was on the topic.

Like a Twitter Beetlejuice, Former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid couldn’t help but respond having been summoned.

Others also pointed out that Reid has previously renounced his earlier comments, even as the Reid/Trump spat became a brief sideshow.

The Takeaway: While the subject lumbers on like a racist zombie, let’s have our own little sideshow here by noting an unexpected moment in the entire discussion: This tweet from the Associated Press, which might be the shape of things to come in political coverage.

In Which the Ghost of Willie Horton Returns When Least Expected

What Happened: In case a show of military strength at the border and a threat to undo a constitutional amendment wasn't enough, there was a third show of anti-immigrant presidential power this week, and this one was caught on tape. Well, it was all on tape, actually.

What Really Happened: In case you were thinking that things hadn't cratered deep enough when it comes to President Trump’s attempt to scaremonger around the subject of immigration, well … Let’s just look at what the president dropped on his Twitter account on Wednesday, shall we?

To call this, as CNN did, a racist video is an understatement; one so racist, it seems that even other Republicans failed to get behind it. And, unsurprisingly, others noticed it too.

Oh, and guess what? The video isn't even accurate.

Others also noted the lie, but facts! Who cares about facts these days? After all, it's not as if the issue of illegal immigration is even a growing trend, as the president claims—

—but that's missing the point. Outrage surrounding the video did dominate the online conversation in the immediate wake of its release, which meant that it was doing its job.

In case you're wondering why Republicans would like to distract from healthcare, it's because that's not going well for them, because it turns out that people want to be covered for pre-existing conditions.

The Takeaway: If you can look beyond the racism and lie about the Democrats letting Luis Brecamontes back into the country, there's one more thing of interest in Trump's video that he'd probably not like you to think about too much.

Kanye West Steps Out of the Fray

What Happened: Kanye West left politics.

What Really Happened: Remember when Kanye West was in the White House and singing President Trump's praises? Man, that seems like it was years and years ago, instead of just three weeks. But however long ago it was, the point is, it's the past; Ye has now ditched politics altogether. Or so he told the world this week.

The response was … Well, sincere probably isn't the right word, considering.

Here's the thing, though; this wasn't West renouncing Trump, as many believed. Instead, it was West falling out with commentator Candice Owens over Blexit, the new brand she's launched to mark "the official Black Exit from the Democrat[ic] Party."

Owens unveiled Blexit shirts at conservative non-profit Turning Point USA's Young Black Leadership Summit last weekend, and announced that they were designed by West. "Blexit is a renaissance and I am blessed to say that this logo, these colors, were created by my dear friend and fellow superhero Kanye West," she said at the time.

Dropping West's name helped get publicity for the cause, but there was just one problem: According to West, she just used his name.

As it turned out, Owens must have known this was coming, because a day prior to West's tweets, she shared this herself in an attempt to save the relationship:

It didn't work, sadly, and as a result, West jumped ship, taking his credibility with him. (Well, such as it was, anyway.) Naturally, some folks are pretty upset.

The Takeaway: Before anyone feels happy with how this all went down, let's stop for a second and remember that what caused the schism wasn't anything ideological at all, but the use of West's name to promote some apparel. There is no high ground here for anyone, let's be real.

The Makers of Game of Thrones Would Really Like Trump to Not Use Their Messaging

What Happened: President Trump evoked Game of Thrones' "winter is coming…" phrase to announce some sanctions. The makers of Game of Thrones, and much of the internet, was none too pleased with that.

What Really Happened: The Trump administration has, since its start, treated Iran with no small level of suspicion, if not outright disdain. After months of complaining about the deal the Obama administration had made with Iran over its nuclear capabilities, Trump withdrew from the deal in May—something seen as risky by most, and a mistake by Obama, Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khameni, and, perhaps less obviously, Jimmy Carter.

Last week, news started to leak that Trump was seeking to reimpose sanctions against Iran that were lifted as part of an Obama administration deal, despite concerns that it could cause a world recession and hand a political and strategic victory to Russia. On Friday, the Trump administration announced all sanctions would return November 5. How do you think Trump marked this decision on Twitter?

…Yeah, like anyone really thought the answer was going to be Game of Thrones-inspired fan art.

Twitter's response was … well, what you might expect.

That last tweet proved at least somewhat prescient when, later on Friday, the official Twitter account for HBO, the network that airs Game of Thrones, tweeted the following.

The cable network followed that up with the following statement: "We were not aware of this messaging and would prefer our trademark not be misappropriated for political purposes."

Yes, we are now living in a world where the President of the United States makes policy statements on Twitter using Game of Thrones memes, and then the network that airs the show claps back on that same social media platform. Just think about that for a second.

The Takeaway: We'll let Maisie Williams, who plays young assassin Arya Stark, handle the mic drop on this one.

Nick Goldschmidt has been lucky so far. A wildfire has burned more than 8,000 acres just north of his vineyards in Geyserville, California, but so far his vines are OK. So is his house in Healdsburg, roughly midway between Geyserville and a 36,000-acre fire that destroyed more than 2,800 homes in Santa Rosa.

But now, amid the charred, empty spaces that scar northern California’s winegrowing region, under skies yellowed by smoke, Goldschmidt has a race to win. Wildfires can ruin the flavor of wine grapes, a problem called smoke taint. “I’ve worked with smoke before,” Goldschmidt says. “It is not an easy thing to fix. But in my experience, it’s more about contact time. So the key thing is, if you have vineyards near the fire, you’ve got to get the grapes off.”

Depending on wind, smoke from the Atlas Fire could potentially reach Goldschmidt’s Napa vineyard, where about 15 percent of the fruit remains to be harvested. He now plans to harvest the rest by the weekend.

That’s typical of Napa, where 80 to 85 percent of the 2017 harvest is done. In nearby Sonoma, 90 percent of the grapes are in. But that still means that a few grapes could get exposed to smoke, and fire and heat could damage the vines. In a region key to California’s $34 billion wine industry—and that figure doesn’t even include the enormous tourist business—that’s a big deal. Fires have killed 31 people so far, destroyed thousands of homes, and consumed the efforts of more than 8,000 firefighters. And the winemakers of the area are trying to make sure the damage to their livelihoods doesn’t get worse.

Winemaking regions around the world, especially in Australia, have been dealing with the consequences of more active fire seasons near vineyards since at least the turn of the century—but the problems haven’t really hit California yet. The state’s frequent fires haven’t intersected with its vineyards. Until now.

Smoke is complicated stuff. Everyone in the Bay Area has gotten a taste in the past few days—that medicinal, ashy, burnt flavor comes from, among other ingredients, molecules called polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, nitrogen and sulfur oxides, other organic compounds, and even tiny particles carried aloft by heat and air currents. If you’ve ever sat near a campfire or cooked on a grill, you know it’s not necessarily an unpleasant aroma, as cognitively dissonant as that may feel when you realize it comes from blazes that have destroyed the lives of thousands.

But what’s delicious in bacon or lox generally isn’t—depending on how much you have—in wine. The actual flavor compounds are molecules called volatile phenols. “Volatile” means they evaporate, and in chemistry “phenols” are benzene rings (a hexagon of carbon atoms with hydrogen atoms sticking off like a snowflake) connected to a hydrogen-and-an-oxygen. You might know them better as the aroma of peat in some whiskies or of antiseptic or Band-Aids. Their volatility means that in your mouth, they turn into a vapor that gets sucked up retronasally, through the back of the throat to the sensitive layer of nerve endings behind your nose that translates chemicals into odors.

Smoke taint in grapes has two specific markers: guaiacol and 4-methylguaiacol. They taste like, well, smoke. Expose grapes on the vine to them, and the wine will taste smoky. Obvious, right? Except no. “The mechanism is a little bit unclear,” says Kerry Wilkinson, an oenologist who studies smoke taint at the University of Adelaide. Leaves have pores called stomata involved in respiration, “but when grapevines are exposed to smoke, the stomata close almost immediately and photosynthesis stops,” she says. “The guaiacol conjugates are getting to not only the skins but the pulp of the fruit. I think it’s just permeation, but I don’t think anyone’s done the research.”

Making things even more complicated, grapevines have their own way of dealing with a barbecue. “Those compounds, once they’re taken up, the grapevine will stick one or more sugar molecules on them,” Wilkinson says. “We think that’s to make them less toxic to the plant.” This process—it’s called glycosylation, and the sugars are called glycosides—turns the volatile phenols non-volatile. Which means you can’t taste them in the grape juice.

But ferment that juice into wine, and acids in it will break those sugars off. Poof: Smoke gets in your wines.

I don’t mean to be flip here; smoke taint from the Canberra bushfires of 2003 cost Australian vineyards more than $4 million; fires in 2004 cost another $7 million. Once grapes are tainted, the wine isn’t easy to fix. Those ashy flavors are too strong; you can’t just try to blend in other, untainted wine to cover it up. Efforts to filter it with activated charcoal and reverse osmosis can filter out flavors you might want in the wine, too. Heck, guaiacol and 4-methylguaiacol are markers for oak-barrel aging, too. Nobody ever describes an over-oaked Chardonnay as “smoke-tainted,” but—well, maybe they should, actually. And some grape varietals—shiraz, particularly—already have naturally high guaiacol levels.

All of which might be fine. Most of the grapes were picked before the fires came. In general, “if the fruit’s already been harvested this year, it should be OK,” Wilkinson says. A couple dozen wineries suffered damage so far, from minor to total. But Northern California has almost 250,000 acres of wine grape vines—more than 100,000 of them in Napa and Sonoma Counties as of 2016.

It looks like the grapes those vines produce will be OK next year. “There’s no carryover effect from one season to the other,” Wilkinson says. “We haven't seen any evidence to suggest that any of those smoke compounds are bound up from one season to another in the grapevine.” They get into the grapes, which come off, and the leaves, which fall off or get pruned. (And a little more luck: The grapes left to harvest in Napa are mostly Cabernet Sauvignon, which turns out to be more resistant to smoke taint than some other varietals.)

But vines themselves are sensitive to heat. “They can be scorched, and if it’s severe, that can permanently damage or kill grapevines,” Wilkinson says. “If there’s just a little bit of scorching, vines can recover, but the yield can be decreased in the season immediately after.”

It turns out it’s pretty hard to burn down a California vineyard. In part that’s because most of them are irrigated, so they’re wet and thus resistant to fire. Even when the cover crop growing between the vines gets burned in a fast-moving wildfire, “it’s pretty damn hard” to get a California vineyard to catch, Goldschmidt says.

When he was working in Chile, though, he saw a wind-driven wildfire very much like the ones affecting California destroy a vineyard. “That was devastating,” Goldschmidt says. “A lot of those vineyards are dry-farmed, so they burned much more easily.”

Heat damage is a lot like frost damage, something California vintners know a lot about. Proper pruning and treatment can save an injured vine. The trick is knowing if they’re injured, and how badly. Sometimes vintners will have to cut through the trunks of the vines to assess whether the phloem, the living and respiring part of the wood, is still healthy. But that’s a destructive test—sometimes destroying the vine in an attempt to save it.

So grape-growers look for other ways to assess their vines. “We look at things like, are the irrigation lines melted? Is there indication of scorching of the trunk and canopy? How much fire damage was there to anything growing in between the vines?” Wilkinson says.

That’s an assessment that’ll probably have to wait until the fires are under control. Maybe Goldschmidt’s luck will hold out. “This is my 29th vintage in Sonoma. It’s the first time the Alexander Valley was earlier in maturity than the Napa Valley. Usually it’s 10 days later,” he says. “If it had been the other way I would have really been hammered.”

Ordinarily I might end the story with that, but in this case it’s not as lucky as it sounds. Napa and Sonoma did indeed have a weird year. It rained hard after years of drought, and then over the summer it got really hot. Vintners irrigated when they might not have, which lowered the sugar levels in the grapes as they took up the water…and then it got hot again. “It’s been really hard to make a harvest decision based on sugar,” Goldschmidt says. “It’s been more about flavor and tannin.”

Based on those organoleptic assessments—the fanciest possible way of saying “how it tastes”—most of Napa and Sonoma brought in their fruit in July and August instead of, well, now.

To whom should the vintners send a thank-you? “Over the last five years or so we’ve had this period of very high temperatures that coincided with low precipitation, punctuated by very wet conditions,” says Noah Diffenbaugh, a climate researcher at Stanford. It’s exactly what Diffenbaugh’s group warned would happen in a prescient 2006 paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences titled “Extreme heat reduces and shifts United States premium wine production in the 21st century.”

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Their point? At first, heat and rare-but-extreme rain is going to change how winegrowing regions work. Eventually more northerly regions will be better for grapes—hello, Oregon’s Willamette Valley—and existing grape-growing regions will change the varieties they grow.

It’s in the nature of global warming that extreme climate events will become less rare. “We’ve done a lot of work trying to understand how global warming impacts temperature extremes,” Diffenbaugh says. “The extremes are really where we feel the climate.”

The vagaries of climate change let the 2017 vintage mostly dodge the economic devastation that smoke taint would have caused. It’s a faintly silver lining to the clouds of ash and smoke now parked over thousands of acres of death and destruction. But that silver lining won’t last. These won’t be the last fires; next time, maybe the harvest won’t happen first. The most frightening truth about the extreme climate event that is the northern California fires is that such events won’t always be extreme. They’ll be normal.

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