Bennet meets polling criterion for first Democratic debates

Sen. Michael Bennet has met the polling criterion to qualify for the first Democratic presidential debates at the end of June, but that doesn’t ensure the Colorado lawmaker a spot on the stage in Miami.

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Bennet crossed the polling threshold Tuesday morning when he got 1 percent in a national poll from CNN, the third qualifying poll in which he’s garnered at least 1 percent. That makes Bennet, who entered the presidential race a month ago, the 20th candidate to qualify for the debate under criteria set by the Democratic National Committee.

The DNC has said that no more than 20 candidates will be allowed onstage during the back-to-back debates on June 26 and 27, hosted by NBC News in Miami. But with more than a week to go until the qualification deadline, another one or two candidates could still qualify, meaning someone who met at least one of the DNC’s two criteria could be left out.

According to a POLITICO analysis, Bennet joins 19 other candidates to qualify for the debates. The others are Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Steve Bullock, Pete Buttigieg, Julián Castro, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, John Hickenlooper, Jay Inslee, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, Tim Ryan, Bernie Sanders, Eric Swalwell, Elizabeth Warren, Marianne Williamson and Andrew Yang.

Some poll trackers have also said New York Mayor Bill de Blasio has hit 1 percent in three approved polls, though, POLITICO does not project the mayor as having met the polling threshold for qualification. Those who say de Blasio has earned a spot on the debate stage point to Reuters/Ipsos poll in which the mayor apparently qualified via a more expansive sampling of adults, while POLITICO relies on a narrower top-line sample of registered voters that would not qualify him.

The DNC has repeatedly declined to answer questions on specific polls or candidates’ qualifications, including what sample to count in the Reuters poll.

Biden leads in the newly released CNN poll — which surveyed 412 registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning independent voters — with 32 percent. Sanders is in second place with 18 percent, followed by Harris at 8 percent, Warren at 7 percent and Buttigieg and O’Rourke, both at 5 percent.

The poll, conducted May 28-31, represents a small dip in support for Biden from the previous CNN national survey, which put Biden at 39 percent in late April.

If de Blasio hits 1 percent in a third poll — or the DNC opts to count the Reuters adults sample, giving de Blasio his third poll — a candidate who qualified for the debate will be left off stage.

If more than 20 candidates qualify, the 13 candidates who have crossed both the polling and a 65,000-grassroots-donors thresholds will be given priority. The remaining spots onstage will be determined by a series of tiebreaker rules, ranking candidates based off polling averages. A candidate who crossed only the grassroots donor threshold would not make the stage, as 20 candidates have already hit the polling mark.

The candidates with the lowest polling averages who are in the most immediate danger of being cut from the first debates include Bennet, Bullock and Swalwell.

Candidates have until June 12 to qualify for the first debates, and a second round of debates in July will use the same qualifications as the first round.

Candidates who poll above 2 percent will be evenly and randomly divided among the two nights in June, while candidates polling below that mark will also be randomly and evenly divided. There’s expected to be a random drawing for the two debate stages on June 14.

Later debates this fall will have stricter qualification rules. Candidates will have to get 2 percent in four approved polls and have 130,000 unique donors, with 400 donors in at least 20 states. The higher bar has prompted consternation among some candidates who haven’t broken out of the pack, worried they will be unable to cross the dual thresholds without fundamentally changing how they campaign.

“You have to demonstrate that you’re making progress,” DNC chief Tom Perez said on CNN this past weekend, defending the later qualifications.