The Ides of September

Coming back after a long break, the European Union faces an ugly fall.

It was the calm before the storm.

Brussels slipped into its usual summer slumber in August, but as a parade of commission officials, lawmakers, regulators and diplomats return to their desks this week, they face an unusually daunting post-vacation agenda — from fixing Greece to the migrant crisis to convincing Britain to remain in the EU to finalizing plans for a new capital markets union.

Then there’s the simmering conflict in Ukraine and concerns over the terror threat posed by Islamic fighters returning from Syria. Complicating matters further is a series of important elections, including in Spain and across the EU’s border in Turkey.

Whether political, economic or security-related, Europe faces obstacles at nearly every turn.

“The fall will be busy, and perhaps ugly,” said Jan Techau, the director of Carnegie Europe, a think tank.

One official, who returned to work on Sunday already, compared the environment to the fall of 2008, when Lehman Brothers went under.

Top of problem file

Greece still poses the most immediate threat. Athens may have secured another bailout but it is still deep in the woods. Greek elections on September 20 could lead to political instability and renew calls for the country to leave the euro.

Beyond Greece, the sheer scale of the challenges promises to test the EU’s institutional cohesion.

Is Europe up to the task? Europeans are no strangers to sticky problems, but finding effective solutions has not been a strong suit. This time, the stakes for Europe, be it in Greece or the U.K., couldn’t be higher.

“The biggest change is not about busy or slow,” Techau said. “It is about confidence. Even among the integrationist elite, the self-evidence of the whole project is less obvious. Many years of crisis, populism, and foreign policy madness have taken their toll.”

In most cases, the issues on deck aren’t new but are only now coming to a head. This confluence is largely Europe’s own doing. Instead of getting ahead of a problem, be it on Greece or migration, European leaders have tended to let crises reach the breaking point before stepping in. That modus operandi, a vestige of the old EU, worked better in a smaller union with less political divergence. In today’s EU of 28 countries, the brinksmanship has often paralyzed decision-making as tempers flare.

‘Scandalous’ migration policy

Consider migration. Europe has been struggling with the issue in one form or another for more than a decade. Despite clear forecasts a few years ago that the Syrian war would unleash an unprecedented wave of refugees, the EU did little to prepare.

The acrimony in Europe over migration has become so pronounced that it has led to open conflict between states, even prompting calls in some quarters for the reinstatement of border controls.

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said on Sunday that eastern European countries’ refusal to take in more migrants as part of a quota system was “scandalous,” adding that he has “a very dim view” of Hungary’s move to build a border fence to keep migrants out.

“Hungary is part of Europe. Europe has values and these values are not respected by putting up wire fences,” he said.

As Europe’s leaders argue over quotas and fences, the refugees continue to arrive in large numbers, forcing governments across the region to scramble to care for them.

Brussels, meanwhile, has tried but largely failed to mediate. On Sunday, the EU announced the latest extraordinary meeting to address the refugee crisis on September 14, this time of all 28 interior ministers.

Euro agonies

Europe’s recent record on another hot button issue — the economy — is no more encouraging for Brussels. With large swaths of Europe’s economy still stagnating, unemployment high and banks reluctant to lend, Brussels is under pressure to accelerate plans to boost growth and reinforce the architecture of the eurozone.

So far, those plans haven’t gone much beyond the blueprint stage, amid endless debates between members and Europe’s decision-making apparatus. The lack of progress has fueled criticism that Brussels has lost touch with the rest of Europe.

As if to make the point, a Commission spokeswoman asked by POLITICO where the emphasis would be in the coming weeks responded that the executive would continue “to deliver on our work program with initiatives under the 10 strategic priorities and under stage 1 for completing our economic and monetary union.”

Whatever the fate of such initiatives, the clock is ticking for Jean-Claude Juncker. After serving for nearly a year, the commission president and his stable of commissioners have still to prove they can live up to the promise he made on his election to reinvigorate the Brussels executive after years of drift and sagging morale. Juncker’s big moment comes on September 9, when he will deliver his first State of the Union speech, laying out his agenda for the coming year.

The honeymoon is also over for European Council President Donald Tusk. Since taking office in December, Tusk has clashed openly with southern EU states over migration, amid quiet grumbling among some diplomats and officials about his leadership style in general.

His main achievement has been to help to broker the deal that kept the eurozone intact. In the months ahead, the former Polish prime minister may find himself trying to do the same for Europe Union as well.

Tusk is seen as one of the most important negotiation partners for the British government. London will press for limits on the freedom of movement enshrined in the EU treaties, among other issues, setting the stage for a confrontation with other EU countries. Depending on how much it gets Prime Minister David Cameron would likely decide before year’s end whether to press for the U.K. to stay or leave the EU, a senior British official said.

Click Here: Cheap Chiefs Rugby Jersey 2019